Study On Spatial Distribution And Prediction Of Developing Trend Of Aging Population In Wuhan

With the accelerated pace of aging in the world,the aging problem is increasingly becoming an important issue for each country.China is one of the world's most populous countries,has experienced 60 years of vigorous development,and brought unprecedented economic prosperity at the same time,the average life expectancy is generally longer,China is stepping into aging society.Because of the different level of economic development of each region,that leads to the gap of aging degree between urban and rural areas in recent years.Owing to the declining fertility rate,frequent population mobility and other reasons,that contributes to regional aging issues having become increasingly prominent.Adding with the rapid development of aging,the study and solutions to aging problem are very important.Therefore,in this paper,the aging population is the research object,and takes Wuhan as the research sample,to study the spatial distribution and development trend of the aging population.In recent years,as the rapid development of Wuhan's economy and the improvement of living standards,Wuhan city population scale expands day by day,and the aging population grows rapidly,considering population aging is irreversible trend,the overall situation is more and more severe,will hinder the economic development of Wuhan.Thus we need to carry out long-term,forward-looking and practical research on the aging,to provide theoretical analysis for the future urban planning and policy adjustment in Wuhan.This paper reviews the outstanding achievements of demographic transition theory,the spatial distribution of aging population and population prediction method,chooses Wuhan City asa micro angle,describesthe spatial distribution of the aging population,and sets the parameters of the aging population number and distribution forecast.Firstly,according to the census data of Wuhan,this paper demonstrates the spatial distribution characteristics of the aging population from the street level in detail,and uses binary Moran model,calculates the correlation of the elderly population rate and density,obtaining distribution pattern of the aging population,then studies the matching rate of public health service and aging population;secondly,according to the census data,"Wuhan Statistical Yearbook" and "Wuhan health Yearbook" data,this paper uses Preston and Hill's method,Gompertz's death lawto correct the population data,takes example by Zhai Zhenwu et al's method to build fertility pattern for the primary period of two-child policy,and combines Rogers and Castro's age-mobility model with Yang Yunyan's age migration decomposition method.This paper has two prediction schemesby 2030.Low prediction scheme is set by primary population growth mode,the high is set by new population growth mode since two child policy has been carried out.According to the analysis and predictionof the aging population spatial distribution,this paper draws some main conclusions as follow.(1)aging population in Wuhan city is concentrated in the central and northeast than other regions in 2010.The concentration degree of aging population decreases from the center to the surrounding areas.(2)distribution of health resources between the center and the surrounding areas have clear boundary at current: the city center is the concentrated distribution area of the aging population,with high degree of matching rate;surrounding areas aging degree is low,and have more uneven distribution of medical resources.(3)in 2030,the proportion of the elderly population in Wuhan may reach 17.14%,the proportion of elderly people will reach as high as 2.65%,while the rate of aging in Wuhan will be doubled only taking 17 years at least,it's even shorter than Japan.(4)the distribution of medical resources is very uneven,and the allocation of resources in central urban areas and surrounding areasbecomes to disappear in the future.The possible innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)builds fertility pattern for two child policy on the basis of Zhai Zhenwu's method.The fertility parameters during this period areapparently different from the chi-square distribution.(2)combining two methods of building age-migration mode,constructs the migration pattern duringacceleration of urbanizationperiod,which is different from the natural population migration pattern.