A Theoretical And Positive Analysis Of Population Aging On Low-carbon Economic Development

This article is based on the industrial structure, technology progress and the government improves the structure of fiscal expenditure three dimensions to analyze the population aging influence the mechanism of low-carbon economy development. First of all, an aging population aging service demand grows from the demand side, stimulate the elderly service industry development, and promote the transformation and upgrading of service sector makes the upgrading of industrial structure optimization, reduce the path dependence of the traditional fossil energy, finally is conducive to reducing carbon emissions promoting low-carbon economy development. Second, population aging leads to China’s "demographic dividend" is disappearing, and the characteristics of the labor cost rising, on the one hand, will be reversed transmission enterprise technological innovation and to promote technological progress, reduce the production cost of enterprises, thereby inhibiting the labor supply constraints of the rise of labor cost; Technological progress, on the other hand, is advantageous to the enterprise gradually get rid of the dependence on traditional fossil energy, reducing carbon emissions, promote the development of low-carbon economy. Finally, in the older consumers pay more attention to their children’s human capital increase and the pursuit of health and social security under the drive of contributing to the government improve the structure of fiscal expenditure, better education and old-age social security spending less investment spending, investment spending by the government to the people’s livelihood expenditure transformation, reducing carbon emissions and promote the development of low-carbon economy. Low-carbon consumer preferences at the same time also will form a positive feedback effect of the enterprise, the enterprise and research institutions in low-carbon technology research and development, to further promote the development of low-carbon economy. While the market participation in the body of the government, enterprises, social organizations, research institutions and older consumers will work together to provide low-carbon policy and institutional supply, low-carbon aging products supply, technical supply and older consumers low-carbon preference formation, promote the development of old industry and its related industries, especially the development of the elderly services, including the characteristics of nursing care of elderly services, leisure, health, culture, entertainment, health care, domestic service, endowment insurance and financial services industry, reduce fossil energy demand of the national production, change the path dependence on traditional fossil energy, thereby reducing carbon emissions and promote the development of low-carbon economy. Based on the above logic, based on China’s 2004-2013 panel data of 30 provinces (autonomous regions), the difference of generalized moment estimator (Diff-GMM) and the system of generalized moment estimator (Sys-GMM) method for an aging population, the proportion of the tertiary industry and urbanization, the government improve the structure of fiscal expenditure, patent license number, the relationship between the per capita income and a quadratic and carbon emissions has carried on the empirical research. Research results show that population aging will help reduce carbon emissions, in turn after joining control variables by means of superposition of cumulative, an aging population with negative impact on carbon emissions is still significant, showed that the aging of the population development is conducive to reducing carbon emissions, which is conducive to China’s low-carbon economy development. To this end, we suggest that:(1) Develop the elderly services for upgrading the industrial structure optimization, reduce our dependence on the traditional fossil energy, reducing carbon emissions. (2) To establish and perfect the elderly education training system. Through the vocational education and training to allow the elderly labor delay retirement, the human capital of old Labor, promote technological progress and improve the elderly labor productivity, and promote the development of low-carbon economy. (3) Encourage the government to improve the structure of fiscal expenditure, increase education and health spending on social security, reduce investment spending, forcing fiscal spending from investment expenditure primarily to the livelihood of the people spending is given priority to, reduce the dependence of economic development on energy. (4) Encourage consumers to form a low-carbon preference, including low-carbon consumer behavior and low-carbon consumption concept. (5) The central government and local governments to build low-carbon aging industry planning system gradually, increase the supply of low-carbon policy, low-carbon industry planning system, scientific and rationalization.