Research On The Lag Contribution Rate Of The Scale Of Higher Education To Economic Growth

Since the 1990s, Chinese higher education began to expand, at the beginning of this century, higher education has been booming, the scale is expanding constantly. But during this period, most scholars calculated that the contribution rate on the scale of higher education to economic growth is generally low. The main reason for this phenomenon is that it has certain inadaptability between higher education development and economic growth at the beginning of this century. The lag contribution effect of higher education to economic growth gradually exposed, but most of the scholars ignore the existence of this problem.Therefore, this paper considers the lag problem of higher education and talent capital and uses Jiangsu province’s relevant data, by measuring the contribution rate of talent capital and economic growth and the lag contribution rate of the scale of higher education and talent capital, that figures out the hysteresis contribution rate of the scale of higher education to economic growth in Jiangsu province, and determines the lag order number, and compares with those of the Anhui province. Hence, this paper can provide some theoretical reference for the government.Specifically, based on the analysis of relevant theories about higher education, this paper uses the number of college graduates as a measure of the development of higher education, gross domestic product (GDP) as a measure of economic growth, the talent capital stock as a measure of talent capital, using data from 1990 to 2012, based on C-D production function, to calculate the contribution rate of talent capital to economic growth in Jiangsu province. Based on double logarithmic regression model, using heuristics and granger causality test, this paper measures the lag contribution rate of the scale of higher education to talent capital in Jiangsu province, determine the lag order number, and measures the lag contribution rate of higher education to economic growth in Jiangsu province. Since then this paper compares with the contribution rate of Anhui province and Jiangsu province, on the basis of further talent supply situation analysis of the two provinces, and discusses Jiangsu and Anhui province talent flow condition, using the "talent net ingoing rate", "talent increment coefficient" index.The research results show that the contribution rate of talent capital on economic growth in Jiangsu province is relatively stable, in all the five year plan period is about 30%, the lag contribution rate of the scale of higher education to talent capital has a lagged effect. In the long run, the lag contribution rate of the scale of higher education to economic growth is gradually increased. In each period, by contrast, the contribution rate of talent capital on economic growth in Anhui province and the lag contribution rate of the scale of higher education to economic growth are obviously lower than that of Jiangsu province. The rapid economic development in Jiangsu province tend to attract more talents, the supply of human resources is enough, and Anhui province’s talent outflow has severe cases, and it cannot effectively guarantee the talent capital supply. Finally, this paper puts forward relevant policy Suggestions, such as:strengthen the breadth and depth of talent training, improve the regional structure and hierarchical structure of talent training, etc.