| China has begun to enter the aging society since1999, and the pace of aging development is constantly accelerating. According to the World Health Organization predicts that China, in2050, the proportion of the aging population (60years old and above) in the total population will reach more than30%, at that time, china will enter a severe aging society. Aging population has brought to our country’s economic and social a huge challenge, the government, society and families facing the burden of the load-bearing in recent years, such as the rapid growth of the total health expenditure, the personal accounts of pension protection fund is running empty, health care is getting more and more expensive and difficult to obtain for our residents, and the problem of poverty or back into poverty caused by illness and others are becoming increasingly prominent. Why there will be a rapid growth trend of aging? What causes the rapid growth of total health expenditure? What effects the aging development will bring to china’s economic and social in future? And what policy the government should take to face the severe aging society and other problems are worth of us to explore and think.This paper summarizes the factors that affecting the growth of total health expenditure through the study of the existing literature at home and abroad, and then divides them into two categories of demographic and non-demographic factors. We also get the theoretical model of total health expenditure growth that suiting to our country’s conditions based on the existing model, and then get the theoretical relationship between aging and the total health expenditure growth. After we get the theoretical, we calculate the contribution rate of demographic and non-demographic factors on the growth of china’s total health expenditure, and then estimate the aging contribution. Finally, using this model we make a predict that the impact of aging to total health expenditure in next40years.Through empirical analysis, we get the following main conclusions. First, the degree of aging is accelerating, and economic growth and fertility policy has led to the acceleration of aging. Second, the level of raising capital and broad medical insurance continues to improve, and the individual burden is getting lighter, but those levels are still lowly compared with international communities. Finally, the aging bring a little impact on the growth of total health expenditure growth at present, however, the predicted results show that it will have a great impact in the next40years. At the end of the paper, we provide some policy recommendations to the government according to the conclusions we get from the empirical analysis. |
