Study On Regional Differences In The Effect Of Demographic Change On Prices In China

Since2004, home price in our country nationally rise–large in magnitude andrange. It’s rarely seen in the history of real estate. Shelters are basic needs and essentialsto common people, while the “high housing prices” has become a serioussocioeconomic issue, so that make it more difficult to people to buy a house.Approaches to the reason of rapid development of the housing market, scholars try tofigure it out from many angles, such as land system, monetary system, land speculatingand urbanization. However, it is still no final conclusion. This paper attempts to getpopulation structure involved, from this point of view, to explain the reason of raisingprice.This paper holds that college-educated people have the strongest desire to buyhouses. For graduates, they stay a city to live and work, and want reflect their sense ofbelongings in the city through owning a residence. If the number of youth is increasing,the populations of high educated people increase accordingly. It may lead to the increasein housing demand. In1998, since the housing system reform begins with the abolitionof welfare housing, the real estate entered a new era of commodity houses in ourcountry and became a new growing point of national economy. Meanwhile, our countrybegan to implement a policy of expansion of scale of higher education in order to settlethe economic depression and employment pressure occurred in1998Asian financialcrisis. In that case, I think the change of age composition and the structure of highereducation will lead to the growing housing needs and prices in real estate market.This paper is different from other articles, which analyze the influence of agecomposition change on housing prices. Basing on the Panel Data of1999to2012, thispaper study the housing prices change influenced by structure of population andeducational instruction. The results showed that: first of all, higher education has apositive impact on China’s housing prices, including commercial house market andvillas market. The dominant influence area is the central part of China, reaching toabout7percent to10percent, while the influence on the east is minimal, only3percentto5percent. Secondly, the influence of upbringing ratio on housing prices change isgradually diminishing from east to west and it is a positive correlation. Both economictransformation and periodical population policy make the proportion of the aged isgetting larger, but it will not lead to a downward trend in housing prices. Thirdly, the rate of increase in population and per-capita GDP have impact on housing prices, theeffects to be significant positive, while the effects of urbanization rate to be uncertaintyand insignificant. Urbanization should proceed in a positive and sound manner, andwork hard to raise the quality of urbanization. It is our immediate concern.