Research On The Spatial Clustering And Changing Trend Of The Hepatitis C Virus During2008-2012in Mainland China

Hepatitis C is an infectious disease affecting primarily the liver, caused by the hepatitis C virus (HCV). The infection is often asymptomatic, but chronic infection can lead to scarring of the liver and ultimately to cirrhosis, which is generally apparent after many years. In some cases, those with cirrhosis will go on to develop liver cancer and life-threatening. It is estimated that150million people, or3%of the world’s population, are living with chronic hepatitis C. About3-4million people are infected per year, and more than350,000people die yearly from hepatitis C-related diseases. According to a epidemiological study in China between1992and1995, the average anti-HCV positive rate in China was3.2%, China is the high prevalence areas for HCV, amounting to approximately40million infected individuals.Objective:This study aimed to analyze the2008-2012national HCV’s spatial and temporal epidemic patterns, cluster characterizations. Therefore to provide a scientific evidence for HCV prevention and control and policy making. The comprehensive spatial analysis techniques and statistical analysis methods in the field of HCV were used in this study to provide a methodology reference for similar studies.Methods:The epidemiological methods were used to analyze data of HCV for the five years. The spatial, temporal and population distributions of HCV were discripted among the five years; the spatial autocorrelation method and kriging interpolation method were used to detect the HCV at the district levels for clustering.Results:1. During2008-2012, the total number of cases of HCV is Approximately700,000. the national average incidence rate was10.067/100000, male incidence rate was11.255/100000, female incidence rate was8.814/100000, sex ratio is1.282. The incidence of HCV has a rising trend and seasonal trends over time, HCV cases were concentrated mainly between30and60age group, account for60.6%of total cases. Farmer is the most infected occupation with largest number and proportion, account for39.75%of total cases.2. Global Moran’s I coefficients were0.3666,0.3875,0.3854,0.3860and0.3789for 2008to2012, respectively, corresponding P-values were all0.0000using Monte Carlo tests; all P-values were less than0.05. When local autocorrelation analysis was applied to the district level,742hot spot areas were detected in2008, they were distributed in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang,652hot spot areas in2009, they were distributed in Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang,610hot spot areas in2010, they were distributed in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang,705hot spot areas in2011, they were distributed in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Henan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang, and678hot spot areas in2012, they were distributed in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Henan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai and Xinjiang.Conclusions:The incidence of HCV has a rising trend and seasonal trends over time on the mainland. The incidence of male was higher than that of female in all age groups; The spatial clustering of HCV incidence from2008to2012in China was moderate, respectively; the main clustering areas were in northeast and northwest of China, clustering areas have demonstrated a steady state with years.