The Relationship Of Meteorological Factors To The Epidemic Activity Of Main Communicable Diseases In Jiangsu Province

In this thesis, from a perspective of multiple disciplines including meteorology, epidemiology and microbiology, the impact of climate change on the incidence of communicable diseases is explored through statistical analysis of meteorological data collected at60weather stations in Jiangsu province over50years (1961-2010) as well as the data accumulated over the past decade on the incidence of6common communicable diseases in the province. Several innovative conclusions are reached from the study, which are summed up in the following:1. The climate in Jiangsu province shows a warm-up tendency over the past50years, compared with that of the1960s, the average annual temperature in the2000s has increased by1.14℃, the average spring temperature by1.61℃, the average summer temperature by0.27℃, the average autumn temperature by0.94℃and the average winter temperature by1.72℃. The chief contributor to climate warming in the province is the increase of temperature in winter and in spring. The increase of temperature is the least in summer. The average annual temperature in southern Jiangsu province is higher than in northern Jiangsu province while the average annual temperature in western Jiangsu province is higher than in eastern Jiangsu province.2. The precipitation in the province over the past50years shows a tendency of slight growth. Except for certain individual years, the average annual rainfall in Jiangsu province does not vary very much from year to year, basically ranging around1000mm, with the maximum being1200mm and the minimum800mm. The largest volume of precipitation in Jiangsu province occurs in summer while the least volume is recorded in winter. The increase of rainfall is mostly manifested in summer and in winter. The annual rainfall in the southern part of the province is higher than in the northern part, while the annual rainfall in coastal areas is higher than in inland areas.3. Major communicable diseases in Jiangsu province is characterized by obvious seasonal distribution, which is related to the distinctive four seasons, the different human activities in the four seasons and the living habits of the people. Studies on the regional distribution of communicable diseases found that the incidence of major communicable diseases is higher in individual regions, which is attributable to the regional difference in climate.4. Climatic factors contribute differently to the incidence of various communicable diseases. Malaria, bacterial dysentery, typhia/paratyphia are impacted relatively evidently by climatic factors, i.e. the higher the temperature of the current and previous months (including average monthly temperature, average monthly maximum temperature and average monthly minimum temperature), the lower the average air pressure of the current and previous months, the higher incidence of these three communicable diseases. The higher the relative humidity of the current and previous months is, the higher the incidence of malaria and bacterial dysentery. The higher the average relative humidity of the current month is, the higher the incidence of typhia/paratyphia. On the other hand, climatic factors exert no significant impact on the incidence of tuberculosis, epidemic hemorrhagic fever and viral hepatitis. This fact is not only closely linked with the biological characteristics of the pathogens of different communicable diseases, but also related to the different spreading mechanisms of communicable diseases. The overall effects of multiple climatic factors on communicable diseases remain to be studied further.