| Objective:The incidence of communicable diseases and prevention and control work quality is an important sign of economic development and health level of a region. Tianjin Dongli District is the link of urban and development area, to master the communicable diseases epidemic trends and characteristics and provide scientific basis for disease prevetion and control in this area,now describe and analysis the communicable diseases epidemic characteristics details from2000to2013.Methods:On the statistics of Tianjin dongli District,2000-2013notifiable infectious disease report data, using descriptive epidemiological method and epidemic characteristics of epidemic trend of the details. Analyze the the epidemic situation of bacillary dysentery, viral hepatitis, tuberculosis, measles, epidemic hemorrhagic fever and hand foot and mouth disease. Indexes including the incidence, morbidity, mortality, proportion, ratio, etc. And use the2000-2012incidence data of five diseases above, predict the incidence rate in2013by using the moving average method and exponential smoothing method, and compared with the actual incidence. Results:1、2000-2013years of the legal infectious diseases were reported in29of39833cases,23cases of death. Report class B22kinds of14723cases, the average incidence rate of235.87/10million. The average mortality rate was0.37/10million. Class C infectious diseases,7of25101cases. the average incidence rate of473.89/10million, the average mortality rate was0.034/10million.2、2000-2013years, the incidence of bacillary dysentery in the first place along, viral hepatitis in the multi two or three ranking, but have been receding trend. Pulmonary tuberculosis mainly in the second, syphilis in recent years are also on the rise, other ranks among the top five of disease contain measles, scarlet fever, epidemic hemorrhagic fever. From the perspective of transmission, intestinal infectious diseases in the A and B Class infectious diseases report most, accounted for the overall incidence of53.68%, blood and sexually transmitted diseases,23.05%, respiratory diseases accounted for accounted for22.39%, natural focal disease accounted for0.86%.3、The epidemic characteristics of focus communicable diseases (1) Bacillary dysentery:2000-2013average annual incidence rate of122.20/10million,.5-10months are the peak season。(2) Viral hepatitis:viral hepatitis have no obvious seasonal, the largest number of cases of hepatitis B reports, mainly in young men.(3) Pulmonary tuberculosis:bacteria (-) cases accounted for47%of all cases, and infection of great significance with (+) cases occupied39%.(4) Measles:winter and spring are the peak season,4-5reached the peak incidence. Above15years of age accounted for46.96%of all cases,8months to6years of age, this part of the focus groups also occupies23.30%combination of urban and rural areas for the prevention and control of key areas.(5) Epidemic hemorrhagic fever:2000-2002years for the incidence peak. The general was sporadic, young adults aged20-49most cases.(6) Hand foot and mouth disease:6-7month is the peak incidence, the children under5years accounting for90.39%of all cases. Pathogen monitoring show that the different kinds of influenza viruses..4、For bacterial dysentery, epidemic hemorrhagic fever, measles and hepatitis virus pulmonary tuberculosis,2013forecast incidence rates were53.81/10million,0.48/10million,29.11/10million,4.62/10Vanward35.72/10million, compared with the actual incidence the prediction results show that more accurate.Conclusions.Tianjin dongli District2000-2013class B infectious diseases in the overall downward trend, class C infectious diseases by the statistical effect of early disease, changes in the larger, but is relatively stable overall. Intestinal infectious disease is still the major infectious diseases affecting the health of residents. Bacillary dysentery, tuberculosis, measles, hepatitis and hand foot and mouth disease is the current focus on the prevention and control of infectious diseases. To strengthen immunization and the monitoring power, actively respond to the new infectious diseases, and to strengthen the prevention and control of floating population. |
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