Comparative Analysis Of ABCD~2 ,ESRS And SPI-Ⅱ For Risk Prediction Of Recurrent Stroke In Patients With Ischemic Stroke

Objective:Existing comparative study was not available on ABCD2, ESRS, SPI-Ⅱ on prediction of recurrent stroke in domestic. We aimed to retrospectively compare predictive accuracy of the scores on risk prediction of recurrent stroke in Chinese stroke patients.Methods:We comparatively analyzed the predictive accuracy of ABCD2, ESRS and SPI-II for recurrent stroke using the retrospective data of 788 ischemic stroke patients. We compared the distinction ability of the scores to identify patients whom have a higher stroke recurrence risk.Results:All of ABCD2, ESRS, SPI-Ⅱ were poorly predictive (C-statistics,0.530,0.543, 0.534, respectively) of recurrence at 90 days after ischemic stroke. ABCD2 was also poorly predictive (C-statistic,0.563) of recurrence at 1 year. Both ESRS and SPI-II were modestly predictive (C-statistics,0.611,0.607, respectively) of 1-year stroke recurrence risk. Patients, which were assessed as high risk by ESRS and SPI-II, had a higher 1-year risk of recurrent stroke (15.8%,14.6%, respectively). But the patients with high risk assessed by ABCD2 hadn’t.Discussions and Conclusions:The predictive power of ABCD2 for early and medium-term recurrences is poor in ischemic stroke patients. Although ESRS and SPI-II poorly predict early recurrences, ESRS and SPI-II are modestly predictive for medium-term recurrences. Both ESRS and SPII-II have a higher distinction ability to identify patients whom have a higher medium-term risk of recurrent stroke than ABCD2. More reliable early and medium-term risk prediction after ischemic stroke is required.