An Analysis And Prediction For Health Resources Distribution Of Nanjing

BackgroundFairness and efficiency is an eternal topic in the area of health service. The fairness of regional medical resource allocation is a crucial structural factor of the regional health care system, which is also the basis for future medical resources in this region. In our country, growing attention is paid to medical and health services with the improvement of people’s health consciousness, so more requirements are put forward on the health service system reform. Under the background of new medical reform, more reasonable allocation and higher utilization efficiency of health resources are required to give the potential of the health resource a full play. Besides, scientific and rational regional health planning reference is necessary to satisfy the requirements of the people health care, which promotes comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development of medical and health undertakings.Research objectsIn this research, we study the health resources allocation in Nanjing and analyze the manpower, material resource and financial resources for health care in different countries of Nanjing. Then we predict the future heath manpower and bed number in Nanjing, discuss the problem in medical resource allocation and give reasonable proposals. We hope our results can help government to make better regional health planning and supporting measures, improve the fairness of regional medical resource allocation, and provide better medical and health services, which promote the development of medical and health undertakings.Research methodIn this research, we mainly conduct literature review, secondary data collection and expert consulting for data collection. Descriptive analysis is made to analyze the regional medical resource allocation in Nanjing. Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient are adopted to analyze the fairness of resource allocation, while time series method is used to predict the future regional heath manpower and bed number I Nanjing.Main Results1. In 2012, the Gini coefficients of health professionals,certified (assistant) doctor and registered nurses versus population are 0.3286,0.3219 and 0.3683, respectively, while the coefficients versus geographical area are 0.7099,0.6898 and 0.7320. The Gini coefficients of the health human resource from 2010 to 2012 are 0.3-0.4 versus population and 0.6-0.7 versus geographical area, which reduces in the three years. The Gini coefficient of registered nurses is the highest, both demographic and geographical.2. The Gini coefficients of number of bed in 2012 is 0.3008 and 0.6530 versus population and geographical area, respectively. The demographic Gini coefficients of material resources are 0.3-0.4 from 2010 to 2012, while geographical Gini coefficients are 0.6-0.7. Both coefficients present downward trend within the three years.3. The Gini coefficients of heath financial resources in 2012 is 0.2788 and 0.5140 versus population and geographical area, respectively. The demographic Gini coefficients of material resources are 0.2-0.3 from 2010 to 2012, while geographical Gini coefficients are 0.4-0.6. Both coefficients present downward trend within the three years.4. By studying the time series of the health human resource in Nanjing, we find the regional health professional number is 69970,73798,77790,81946 and 86267, whose average annual growth rate is 5.6%. The corresponding number of bed is 40534,46120,52349,59222 and 66738, with anaverage annual growth rate of 13.3%.Conclusion and Suggestions1. Nanjing is rich in the total health resources, but the structure of health human resource increasing needs optimization urgently. The relative quantity of doctors and nurses is also unreasonable and requires improvement. More financial investment from government is required, and multi-channel financing may help.2. All health resources allocation in Nanjing converge to urban and rich area, and so they are geographically unfair. Administrative departments for public health shall explore new indicator or combine more indicators to guide and evaluate health resources allocation better and promote the fairness of health resources allocation with multiple perspectives.3. With time series study, we find that the health human and material resources increase rapidly, which keeps correspond to the development of national economy and society. Public health administrative departments should pay more attention to optimizing the structure of health resources, play a functional role in planning, service and supervision, avoid disorder in the development of health resources, and finally guarantee faster and better development of health undertaking.