Health Management Decision Support System Model Building Research

Objective:This study through combing health management decision support system in different application scenarios, the corresponding model type and model building method, combining with the implementation status of guarantee of serious illnesses in New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme and the related data, to build a decision model for practical problems, in order to provide technical support and reference for managers of New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme conducting scientific and reasonable decision analysis.Contents:1. Analyse related theory and application research. Systematically analyze the research status of health management decision support system at home and abroad, focusing on species, application field, method and content of the existing mature decision model.2.Model analysis of Health Management Decision Support System. Systematically conclude and classify decision model, including its disciplines and corresponding technical domain, the core algorithm, etc. On this basis, combining with the health management decision support system for different application scenarios and link, evaluate and compare of the relevant decision-making model, definite what kind of decision model for decision analysis should be chosen under the corresponding scenario and link, so as to achieve the optimal decision effect.3.Implementation status of guarantee of serious illnesses in New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme and the related data analysis. Systematically analyse and summary the research content and the implementation status of guarantee of serious illnesses in New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme. Select Anhui and Hainan that existing in Information Platform of national New Rural Cooperative Medical. Deeply analyze and discuss the hospital compensation detailed data of insurance person in the two areas from 2012 to 2014.4. Research in decision model building based on new kinds of serious illnesses in New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme. Combined with the data analysis results, select the Bayes analysis model and trend extrapolation prediction model, according to the relevant indicators to determine the model variables, using statistical methods, to build and test the model.Methods:Through the method of literature research, collect theoretical literature, empirical research, relevant policies and regulations, research report, etc.; using analyzed decision model, combining with the technical data in Information Platform of national New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme, using statistical methods to compose discriminant analysis model and major kinds forecast model of serious illnesses in New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme.Results:1.Analyzedapplication scenarios and the main function of the health management decision-making model. Classified the model to discriminant analysis model, prediction model,evaluation model, expansion model and professional model.2. Combined with the technical data and the study status of guarantee of serious illnesses in New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme, determine the index system of serious illnesses in New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme:prevalence, per capita hospitalization times, times of hospitalization days, the average per capita hospitalization cost, standard deviation of disease cost, the hospital proportion in Municipal hospital, at the provincial level and above hospitals.3. Using statistical methods, build the Bayes discriminant analysis model of serious illnesses, classify the serious illnesses and non-serious illnesses, establish the trend extrapolation prediction model and predict all index data of the non-serious illnesses in 2015.4. By Bayes discriminant analysis model, classify the forecast data of 2015, and ultimately to predict ten kinds of new major diseases:nasopharyngeal carcinoma, laryngeal cancer, brain tumors (limited surgery), non-hodgkin’s lymphoma, leukemia, heart attacks (limited surgery and interventional therapy), cerebral hemorrhage (limited surgery), liver cancer, aneurysm (limited surgery), and thyroid cancer.Conclusion:In this study, the model choose-model modification-model test-model applied, as the model building theory of decision support system for the management of health, combining with index system of serious illnesses in New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme, use statistical methods to build a new discriminant analysis model and trend prediction model of serious illnesses in New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme, complete the prediction of new species of serious illnesses in New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme. Research results can provide reference for managers in expansion species of serious illnesses. Thus facilitate the continuous improvement of guarantee of serious illnesses in New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme, and lighten the rural residents’ disease economic burden.