| Based on the study of previous literature, it found that there was little research on tobacco and its insurance. Main tobacco growing cities like Guangyuan, Panzhihua, Luzhou, etc. in Sichuan have established a disaster relief fund to cover tobacco planting loss, and gradually bring tobacco insurance into the local policy-guided agricultural insurance. However, as the largest tobacco planting area in Sichuan, Liangshan prefecture’tobacco grown is a specialized industry, which has not only made a considerable contribution to the local economy, but also makes farmers to achieve sustainable income. In the process to modern, large-scale, professional development, the security system of Liangshan tobacco is not perfect, except insurance pilot in DeChang; other regions of Liangshan have no corresponding insurance policy, only disaster relief fund. Weather index insurance is a new type of innovative insurance product that can effectively avoid the drawbacks of traditional agricultural insurance. Under this context, the study expects to explore the Liangshan tobacco growing insurance by way of weather index insurance.This study adopted the precipitation anomaly percentage to calculate drought degree in April and May of Huidong, Huili and Dechang, and by fitting the trend yield separated meteorological yield, whose relationship with precipitation was analyzed. The normal distribution was applied to predict probability of different precipitation and tobacco reduction, and then we rated the pure premium of the three counties. The main conclusions of this study are as follows:(1) With global warming, there have been different levels of winter and spring droughts in Sichuan in recent years. The probability of different levels of droughts occurred in Huidong, Huili and DeChang in April and May were about 40 percent. The three counties are prone to severe drought in April; and in general due to the end of spring drought and rainfall increases, the three counties mainly had mild to moderate drought in May.(2) Through analysis, it found that weather production in Huidong related to precipitation and temperature of early May; Huili’s had relationship with precipitation in late April and late May; DeChang’s primarily related to precipitation in mid-May and mid-May temperatures.(3) The probability of occurrence of 40-80mm precipitation for the three counties were more than 50%, and this level is slightly lower than the ideal level of 80-100mm precipitation, so after tobacco transplanting, farmers have to pay attention to precipitation, and when there is less rainfall, it needs to apply measures like irrigation to rescue tobacco seedlings and improve survival tobacco amount; Otherwise it will affect the final yield and quality of tobacco.(4) By analyzing the relationship between crop failure and different precipitation level, it found that the probability of occurrence of crop failure was the lowest when average monthly rainfall (April to May) was during 80-100mm. Overall, three counties’crop failure probability roughly showed a decrease as the precipitation level increase, and when it reached 80-100mm, there was no failure in Huidong, and Huili and DeChang appeared in a small amount of production increase. At last, pure premium were rated: Huidong 4.12%, Huili 5.10% and DeChang 4.69%.The innovation of this paper lies in using the weather index insurance, a new form of agricultural insurance, to explore economic crops’ insurance, especially tobacco is important in Liangshan Prefecture. The study not only enriches the Sichuan crop index insurance research, also provides some guidance and suggestions to tobacco planting insurance in Liangshan prefecture. |
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