Risk Zoning And Premium Rate Determination Of Forest Pests Insurance In Daxing’anling Forest In Inner Mongolia

As the "shock absorber" and "booster" for the development of the forestry and grassland industry,forest insurance has made important contributions to protecting forest and grass resources and enhancing the anti-risk ability of the forest and grassland industry.Since the pilot work was promoted in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in 2013,the forest insurance business has developed rapidly,but there is still a mismatch between insurance rates and forest risk,problems such as adverse selection and moral hazard are highly likely to be triggered.Therefor,take Inner Mongolia forest pests insurance as an example,relying on the largest forest land in the Autonomous Region-the key state-owned forest area of Daxing’anling in Inner Mongolia,the risk zoning and rate determination work at the county and town level is carried out.The specific studies are as follows:Firstly,assessing the risk of damage for forest pests.The ARIMA model and non-parametric information diffusion model are used to assess the risk of forest pests in the forestry bureaus and management bureaus of Daxing’anling in Inner Mongolia,and the assessment results show that the areas with low forest pests risk included Moerdaoga,Genhe,Keyihe,Deerbuer,and Northern Primary Forest Management bureau;Areas with sub-low-risk include Dayangshu,Bilahe,Mangui,Jiwen,and Kuduer;Areas with medium risk include Wuerqihan,Chaoyuan,Ganhe,Alihe,and Beidahe;The higher risk areas are Arshan,Chaoer,Alongshan,Tulihe,Iturihe and Jinhe.Secondly,carrying out risk zoning for forest pests insurance.On the basis of the risk assessment results,15 indicators are selected from the five levels of climate conditions,population level,disaster degree,forestry level and forestry investment to construct a risk zoning index system by using the leading index method,then combined with the cluster analysis method,the 21 forestry bureaus and management bureaus in Daxing’anling,Inner Mongolia are divided into four risk levels.Among them,the high-risk areas are Arshan,Jiwen,Alihe,Bilahe,Dayangshu,Chaoer,Ganhe,Beidahe;The medium-risk areas are Wuerqihan,Kuduer,Genhe,Yitulihe;The sub-low-risk areas are Chaoyuan,Alongshan,Tulihe,Keyihe,Mangui and Jinhe;The low-risk areas are Deerbuer,Moerdaoga,Northern Primeval Forest Management Bureaus.Thirdly,conducting a study on forest pests insurance rate setting.Based on the results of risk zoning,the pure rate of forest pests insurance in each risk grade area under 100%protection level is determined by non-parametric method: the pure rate of forest pests insurance in high-risk area is 7.33‰,the medium-risk area is 6.50‰,the sub-low-risk area is 6.10‰,and the low-risk area is 5.98‰.Finally,through the above research content and research conclusions,relevant countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for the future development of forest insurance in Inner Mongolia,including: vigorously promote risk zoning to help the refined development of forest insurance,harmonize forest disaster risk assessment standards and promote a one-stop platform,and promoting the construction of intelligent forestry and enhance forestry disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities.