The Empirical Study Of Provincial Government Budget Execution Shirking In China

The government budget is an important link of government economy, budget management is the most important beginning of the government financial planning,it also turns the will of the people into the government action, and provide powerful guarantee tool to achieve the policy goal.In most cases, the budget income overfulfill the target, number of actual fiscal spending less than budget number;Whether fiscal revenue or spending, always increased year by year;At the end of the year, there is always a assault to spend money;Taxation in accordance with the law always complete through the "tax plan", the existing research results can not explain the true story in the "real world" very well in theory.This paper reduces the above problems to opportunistic behaviors in government budget,we study the government budget shirking from two aspects : fiscal revenue and expenditure, according to the empirical analysis of provincial financial data, this paper gets the following conclusion:(1) About the financial income.From 2008 to 2015, regional GDP and fiscal revenue have a substantial growth.From 2014 to 2015, the municipal financial dependency is on the rise, this suggests that the proportion of government allocation in the total value which is created in production and business operation activities increases, the governmental ability that regulating macro economic operation and the make a optimal allocation of resources is enhanced.2008-2015,Provinces fiscal coefficient is basically in the scope of 0.5 to 2.5, in addition to the individual regions individual year less than zero, in most of the fiscal income elasticity coefficient is greater than 1, and increase year by year.Thus,The growth about GDP has a stronger effect on the promotion of fiscal income. GDP reflects a better distribution effect on government revenue.(2) The fiscal expenditure.According to the provincial financial data in2008-2015, we can know the absolute scale of fiscal expenditure in each provinces and cities is increasing steadily year by year, so it is to the relative scale, but there are also some provinces and cities are special, such as Lliao Ning province, Tibet autonomous region.At the same time, the fiscal expenditure relative size in the provinces and cities in the western area is larger, spending is relatively higher than that of eastern and central regions.The development and change about fiscal expenditure in 2015 reflects the economy downward trend in our country, such as2008, 2012 cities spending growth is rising steadily, but growth declines in 2015,2013-2015, most of the provinces and cities of elasticity coefficient is greater than 1,but it has a big overall volatility in 2015.(3) The revenue budget execution shirking.In this paper, based on the provincial data from 2008 to 2015, the study found that provinces revenue widespreadly exist budget shirking. the western region revenue budget shirking phenomenon is higher than the Middle and East.At the same time, the budget shirking of provinces and cities has a downward trend year by year, hypothesis 2 is not supported, the organizational slack and fiscal revenue budget slack are positively correlated.(4) About the fiscal expenditure budget execution shirking. Based on the provincial financial data analysis, this paper found that all the provinces and cities in2008-2015 fiscal expenditure has the budget shirking, the distribution range is wide and has a downward trend year by year.Assumption 2, the organizational slack and fiscal revenue budget slack are negatively correlated, both in the quarterly analysis and monthly analysis are supported;Hypothesis 3, the central fiscal transfer payment level and fiscal revenue budget execution slack are positively correlated, on a quarterly data analysis support, the monthly analysis is not supported.