Budget growth, property tax relief, or risk reduction? Empirical analyses of factors affecting changes in revenue structures and fiscal impacts on Florida counties

This dissertation examines the factors affecting changes of revenue structures in Florida's 67 counties during 30 years. It investigates the fiscal impacts of changes in revenue structures in Florida counties, with a particular focus on multiplicity and diversification. In analyzing influencing factors and fiscal impacts, a robust standard error models approach in fixed-effects model is employed in order to explore factors affecting changes in revenue structures. Fiscal impacts of changes in revenue structures on budget size, total tax burden, property tax burden, reliance on higher levels of government, and reliance on taxes in Florida counties are studied for a thirty-year period (FY 1981 -- FY 2010). The major findings are as follows. With respect to factors affecting changes in revenue structures, this research shows that taxable consumption value, the number of interstate highways, and the form of government are associated with greater degree of revenue diversification. Taxable property value, a presence of metropolitan statistical areas, the proportion of homeownership, the proportion of democratic voters, and property tax millage rate are negatively associated with revenue diversification. Taxable property value, taxable consumption value, the number of interstate highways, the form of government, and property tax millage rate are associated with a larger number of consumption taxes. The proportion of persons working in hotels and restaurants, the proportion of homeownership, and the proportion of democratic voters are negatively associated with the number of consumption taxes. Revenue multiplicity, a measure of fiscal illusion, is found to be associated with larger government budget sizes and higher total tax burdens. An increase in revenue diversification is associated with a decrease in property tax burden. On the other hand, this study does not support the premise that an increase in revenue diversification leads to decreases in reliance on higher levels of government. Finally, this research reveals that more diversified revenue structures tended to produce more stable revenue structures in Florida's counties.;The research findings of this dissertation have both theoretical and policy implications. The research findings from the two empirical analyses contribute a longitudinal perspectives to the literature about changes in revenue diversification and multiplicity as well as the fiscal implications of these changes. This dissertation also has practical implications for tax policy. Financial officials and taxpayers are often interested in having more diversified and multiple sourced revenue structures to export their tax burdens, reduce property tax burden, and increase their budget size. However, taxpayers and financial officials should know that a more diversified and multiple sourced revenue structure is likely to increase their total tax burdens.