Model:Quantitative Determination Of The Market Price Of Residential Projects

Based on the related studies by domestic and foreign scholars on market price of residential projects, the author finds that a majority of scholars make efforts in the study of housing price fluctuations caused by external factors such as policy, economy, market demand and supply, etc. in a certain period; they probe into the modes of actions of these external factors and predict the variation trend of housing price in a future period. The author calls these influential factors that change with time as vertical influential factors of housing price. This thesis adopts the method of transversal study, i.e., it makes a study on the quantitative certainty model of the market price of residential projects in the specific external environment of policy, economy, market, etc, so as to provide a basis and reference for property developers to determine the intrinsic value of residential projects.Through investigations of the said industry and society, adopting questionnaire investigation, Delphi method, empirical analysis, etc, this thesis sifts the influential factors that determine the intrinsic price of residential projects, and further determines the market price of residential projects based on the calculation of average price of regional residential projects and modification of internal factors. It’s a research approach that combines quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis.The framework and research content of each part are as follows:the first part expounds the background, significance, methods, thinking, steps, etc. of this research; the second part explores the situations of related studies both at home and abroad; the third part introduces the theoretical basis of this research, respectively the supply and demand theory, location theory, market replacement theory, real estate price appraisal theory; the fourth part establishes and expounds the quantitative certainty model of the market price of residential projects:first, it determines the influential factors of intrinsic price; second, it establishes the modification system of the influential factors of intrinsic price and the assignment criterion of evaluation indexes of these factors; finally, it concludes the calculation model determined by quantitative method for market price of residential projects; the fifth part selects demonstrative projects, and by comparative analysis of the modified price and actual price of the demonstrative projects, tests the reliability and feasibility of the modification system and calculation model; the sixth part comes to an conclusion of the analyses and discussions.Based on the above research steps, this thesis specifies eight principal influential factors of intrinsic price of residential projects, respectively location, brand, house structure type, supporting facilities, environment, school, quality, traffic, and determines the weight modification system of the eight factors and the assignment criterion of assessment indexes of the factors. Based on this, this thesis establishes the calculation model determined by quantitative analysis for the market price of residential projects:house’s modified price=average price of the region’s residential projects*modification coefficient of the influential factors of intrinsic price. Finally through the selection and analysis of demonstrative projects, this thesis concludes that the calculation result corresponds with actual market price and consumers’ expectations and tests the reliability and feasibility of this quantitative calculation model.The research and establishment of the quantitative certainty model of market price of residential projects, in view of internal factors, reveal the price differences of the residential projects in specific external environment and they can reflect objectively the core advantages and disadvantages of each residential project and provide an oriented reference for developers to understand clearly the value points and short slabs of their own products; meanwhile it also provides a basis of value judgment for house buyers when they consider about housing options.