The BJXL Project‘s Economic Evaluation And Risk Analysis

Urban infrastructure is the important material foundation of regional economic development, and it is the basic industry of regional economic development, optimization of industrial structure, environmental protection and sustainable development. The existing condition, carrying capacity and the advanced degree of the urban infrastructure are the prerequisite for the normal operation of the regional economic activities and the promotion of the regional economy. However, infrastructure investment projects are generally affected by investment, technology, construction period and other factors. So the impact of infrastructure projects and the economic efficiency of the uncertainty of many factors, with great randomness and uncertainty, easy to lead to infrastructure investment projects with a great risk. In order to improve the efficiency of the project, reasonable to strengthen to carry out a feasibility study of the project, scientific and accurate economic evaluation and risk analysis of the project, so as to ensure the construction project investment decision-making accuracy and scientificalness and objectivity, improve investment efficiency, ensure the road completed, operation, also to promote the regional economic development has very important significance. BJXL engineering project as the region of support, skeleton infrastructure project, huge investment, after the completion of the construction to expand the regional passenger and freight traffic volume, improve regional municipal infrastructure, improve the image of foreign investment, to BJXL project of economic evaluation and risk analysis is essential.This paper through the integrated use of at all times and in all countries related theoretical results, combined with the actual situation of the BJXL project, made a risk analysis and economic evaluation of the project: the first project by calculating the economic internal rate of return(EIRR), economic net present value(ENPV), economic benefit cost ratio(EBCR) and payback period(n) and a series of economic evaluation indicators of national project profitability analysis in detail; and then through the calculation and analysis of project financial status, operating subsidies, equity investment expenditure, expenditure, expenditure supporting investment risk and BJXL project financial capacity, so as to analyze whether the project should have the ability to repay the debt. The analysis shows that the project has a certain economic benefits, on the basis of social benefit evaluation of the project, from the perspective of economic evaluation shows that the project has high feasibility conclusion.In detail to complete the project economic evaluation to determine the project is economically feasible, then the project risk analysis: first through the expert investigation method for identification of risk factors, so as to get the fault tree of project risk factors; then use the analytic hierarchy process determine the weights of the factors of construction project risk, to find the main risks, and on this basis, using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to determine the total risk of the project. Finally, according to the size of the risk of the proposed targeted measures, especially for the main risk put focus on the corresponding countermeasures.In this paper, the economic evaluation and risk analysis of BJXL project. The project owners in the early stages of a project can clear the project’s profitability and solvency project accounts, so as to provide scientific basis for later decision making; before the project risk to avoid or mitigate the loss, and even after the risk can be the greatest degree of save the compensation project risk losses caused the consequences and the impact of, the social and economic benefits of the project to maximize their. At the same time, it also provides a good reference for the similar project.