Research On The Evaluation Method Of Coal Enterprise Value Based On Earnings Forecast

China is the world’s superpower coal, whose coal production accounts are half of the world.In recent years, along with the domestic economic structure transformation and upgrading, all kinds of integration of the coal industry to guide policy appear from central to local, which contributed to the coal industry mergers and acquisitions, restructuring and equity trading and other economic activities objectively. Enterprise value plays a decisive role in the activities. Therefore, from the characteristics of coal enterprise it, to explore the value of evaluation methods of coal enterprises has important practical significance on the improvement of coal enterprise value evaluation accuracy.In theory, first of all, this paper expatiates on coal enterprise value assessment and analyze on the two kinds of application condition and defects of the evaluation which coal enterprises commonly used. On the basis of clearing the current coal enterprise value evaluation methods, to explore coal enterprise value evaluation method based on the surplus forecast and then analyze and compare in the In the perspective of the applicability of the two methods of coal valuation. In this way, under different operating conditions in the coal enterprise, combining with two kinds of value evaluation method is more suitable for the conclusion. In practice, this article will takes the case of Shanxi coal enterprise and use two kinds of enterprise value evaluation method based on earnings forecast to value Shanxi coal valuation. First of all, according to the historical data analysis of Shanxi coal business income, considering history income, the development of the market and industry status and other factors, to revenue growth forecast for the future and then analyze history major projects in the income statement, balance sheet accounts for the proportion of revenue, and also predict the future income statement and balance sheet in the main project of the data, which can draw a conclusion on free cash flow and residual income to estimates enterprise value respectively. The results show that using free cash flow discount based on earnings forecast method and residual income discounted method to value coal enterprises can meet investors demand for value evaluation methods. Considering the applicability of the coal enterprise application free cash flow discount method and residual income valuation discount method, according to the results of similar phenomena, combining two methods of value assessment for valuing the Shanxi coal is more reasonably reflecting the enterprise value means that when the operations of Shanxi coal are regular and stable, using free cash flow discount method valuation is much better. While joining new competitors leads to unstable business environment, residual income discounted method should be taken out to value.