Economic Cycle Volatility Transmission Mechanism

Since the beginning of reform and opening up, China's rapid economic development has attracted the attention of numerous domestic and foreign scholars. In the process of economic expanding, some economic phenomena and regional economic inequalities in development occurred. And macroeconomic cyclical fluctuation has become the hot spot and keystone in the macroeconomic and regional economic issues. There are many kinds of methods and means to research. On the aspect of researching macroeconomic cyclical fluctuation, many documents used mostly multifarious econometric models to analyze the cause of macroeconomic cyclical fluctuation. Research regional economic fuluction is mainly based on various indices and convergence analysis of economic inequalities and the change tendencies.To analyse the fluctuation, we sample Shannxi province from the western China as a study case. And GDP is uesed to describe economic growth and change, the four real impulse factors is fisical expendure, invest, consumme, import and export.We use quantitative method to analyse the effect and path of fluctuation, which contains unit roots test, cointegration test and VAR model. On the basis of VAR estimation, we can computer the dynamic effect of output to consumme, investment, fisical spendure and the sum of export and import, and then we can calculate the compared contrubution of all the internal and external real factors to the macroeconomic fluctuation.As a conclution, we find that all the internal real factors can explain 60 percent of the macroeconomic fluctuation, which is bigger than the sum of external factors' effect. It means the policy maker should pay more attention to the real factors, if he want to get a stable increasing economic. Also, we find that consumme and opening out can cause a strong and long-lasting stimualte to reginal GDP, which will last for 5 years at most. But for investment, the dynamic effect is decreasing the rapid of economic growth. Fisical should be treated carefully because it decreases the growth of ecomonic at the first year, and stimulates in the long run.