A Study On The Factors Affecting The Sales Of Cigarette In China

During the development of world tobacco industry, our country has been occupying the title of "six first" in the following aspects: tobacco planting area, tobacco acquisition volume, cigarette production, cigarette consumption, the population of smoking and tobacco taxes. For a long time, the tax of tobacco industry in our country occupies a large proportion in the fiscal revenues, which makes great contribution to the development of our economics. Meanwhile, we should notice that the number of people who suffer from the dangers of tobacco and die from smoking also occupies the first place in the world.Currently there are more than 300 million smokers in our country, and nearly 740 million people are victims of other people’ smoking, including 182 million children victims. The number of people who die from the dangers of tobacco is about 1.2 million. Dramatically increase of tobacco sales in China may have originated from the following several aspects.First, the development of economy brings the spiritual emptiness and the pursuit of desire, which indirectly cause the increasing life stress and therefore many people rely on tobacco to eliminate pressure. Second, cigarette, as the main product of tobacco, is the best choice of gift. People would like expensive cigarette, which leads to the excessive consumption of cigarette. Third, tobacco, as a habitual goods, is hard to quit. Tobacco sales is a double-edged sword, and we need to study the influencial factors so as to balance the pros and cons.This paper is divided into seven parts. The first chapter is introduction, which first introduces the background and significance of the research. Next part is literature review about the micro and macro research on factors which influence the cigarette sales led by domestic and foreign scholars. In the last part, we study the main contents, the methods and innovations of research and deficiencies. The second chapter mainly illustrates the current situation of tobacco industry in our country by analyzing the development of Chinese tobacco industry, tobacco monopoly system and the tobacco enterprise SWOT.After exporing the tobacco industry and analyzing the cigarette market deeply, the third chapter makes analysis about cigarette consumption structure, sales market, and sales brand. The fourth chapter makes the theoretical analysis on the influencial factors of cigarette consumption. The fifth chapter introduces the methods of theoretical analysis,including the stepwise regression, principal component regression and partial least-squares regression, which provide theoretical support for the further empirical analysis. The sixth chapter is an empirical analysis of the influencial factors of cigarettesales. It compares the results of different analysis methods and choose the results that correspond to the fact for the conclusion analysis. The last chapter is about the conclusion and some policy suggestions. Through the empirical analysis of the previous chapter, we draw conclusions about the influencial factors of cigarette sales and put forward to some constructive suggestions for our country’s tobacco system reform.