| Since the reform of China’s real estate market in 1998,Housing assets have become the most important assets of ordinary urban families.On the one hand,the prosperity and development of the real estate industry has driven the growth of China’s macro-economy,which has played a supporting role in the development of the upstream and downstream industries and increased employment.On the other hand,the excessively high housing price in the first-tier and second-tier cities has brought great pressure to the house purchase of ordinary residents and compressed the personal consumption level.In addition,high housing prices make the real estate industry gather huge economic risks.In peacetime,most economic crises are related to real estate,and nine times out of ten real estate crises.It is of long-term significance for the healthy development of the real estate industry to study the mechanism behind the rapid rise in real estate prices.The real estate industry,as a capital-intensive industry,is inseparable from the bank’s credit support whether individuals buy houses or developers build projects.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the influence of bank credit on real estate price.This paper combines theoretical analysis with empirical test to study the real estate price from the two aspects of bank credit scale and credit price level.On the basis of reviewing relevant literature,the development of China’s real estate industry and bank credit scale is reviewed.Then from the general capital asset pricing model and the local equilibrium model theory respectively analyzes the loan interest rate and the loan scale to the housing price influence;Then it analyzes the effect of bank credit on the real estate price from the theoretical transmission mechanism and transmission path.The empirical part examines the bank credit scale,real estate price and loan interest rate,adds the control variables such as per capita disposable income and land cost,conducts seasonal adjustment and logarithmic processing on relevant variables,and establishes the VAR model to analyze the impact on housing price from the perspectives of total credit scale and credit structure.The empirical results show that:1.Bank credit scale and loan interest rate are granger causes of real estate prices;2.Bank credit has a positive correlation with real estate price,and the expansion of credit scale causes the rise of housing price;The effect of loan interest rate on housing price is negative correlation in the short term and positive correlation in the long term.3.Empirical research on the impact of bank credit structure on housing price shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between bank credit and real estate price,and the impact of personal housing loan on housing price is greater than that of real estate developer loan.The impact and contribution of bank credit scale loan interest rate and credit structure on housing price were analyzed by impulse response function and variance decomposition.In the last part of policy suggestions,the government should flexibly use credit policies and monetary policies,carry out tax system reform and build a long-term mechanism,strengthen market supervision and broaden financing channels for real estate enterprises,and change the speculation expectation of real estate from the perspective of ideas,so that the house can return to its original residential property. |
