A Study On The Current Situation And Trend Of Population Distribution In Yangtze River

Along with the development of economic globalization and regional integration, extensive economic connections have established the framework of the urban network. People are more convinced that the city cluster development is a trend than ever before, some people even said bluntly, ‘The 21 st century is the century of urbanization, rather than the century of economic globalization; the future of the international competition is not only the competition of science and technology, but also the contest of regional urban agglomerations.’As one of China’s three biggest urban agglomerations, Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration has strong economic radiation. However, it’s very important to have a reasonable city size structure for a city group; thus it is necessary to study the development of the current city size structure of Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration. For the government management departments, our research will give the city system planning help, and it also provides a reference for alleviating the city’s population pressure and environmental stress.In order that the status of the Yangtze River Delta population size distribution of judgment, we first need to give a theoretical frame of reference. This paper selected population Zipf distribution theory has been widely used in urban geography as the reference standard, then the status and trends of population size distribution of the Yangtze River Delta city group of empirical research, and with zipf Theorem theoretical value, and finally come to two main conclusions: first, through the first index of the Yangtze River Delta population size distribution, Zipf coefficient and urban Gini coefficient analysis found that, compared with zipf Ideally the size distribution of the urban population theory, the Yangtze River Delta city group much population first city of Shanghai, and other urban centers of population size distribution too average. Second, through the use of more than a few indicators to predict Hurst exponent found they all have positive correlations, that past performance are some of the trends well into the future. That is, if the future of the Yangtze River Delta to maintain the status quo, the first index, zipf and urban Gini coefficient will steadily rise. In other words, in the absence of external intervention, population size distribution of the Yangtze River Delta will be difficult to achieve the desired state Zipf theorem. Based on this, that the local government may wish to consider the establishment of a large metropolitan area in the circle for a unified transport, telecommunications, housing and distribution industries, so as to promote further optimize the Yangtze River Delta population size distribution.