Multi - Index Comprehensive Evaluation Method And Its Application In Reservoir Management

Comprehensive evaluation is an all-sided way for people to know something. The objects of research include the select of index system, weight calculations, the choice of evalution method and reliable analysis of the evaluation results and so on. After decades of development, Comprehensive evaluation has developed nearly100kinds of classical models. Many theories have been relatively mature, but there are some problems among the evaluation method of optimization, the objective calculation of weight and evaluation method of reasonable selection.The main contributions of the thesis are as follow:1. Based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE), data envelopment analysis (DEA), gray comprehensive evaluation precess (GRAY) and artificial neural network evaluation method (ANN), this paper has concluded the advantages and module design of all methods.2. Improved analytic hierarchy process.Traditional judgment matrix comes from by comparing two indicators in each layer, experts only consider elements.But ignored the fuzziness and subjectivity of people’s judgment. Others have made some improvement in judgment matrix which less typicality. This paper has improved AHP from two aspects effectively. First is to prove normal model and construct to determine the function and get a reasonable method for judgment matrix constructor. The next is to introduce several new methods of calculating weight, omit the complex process consistency check.3. After analysis the advantages and disadvantages of AHP, FCE and DEA, this paper use the best of each other to purpose as principle.Getting a more reasonable and objective models for evaluation when integrated AHP with each of FCE, DEA, GRAY, ANN.4. Through a deep analysis of the theory and operating pattern of Reservoir management, the thesis has chosen a typical evaluation index to build the hierarchical structure of the reservoir operation and management. Summarized and established the principle.Using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process which based on a reality example from Reservoir management. And the first time get analysis of the process of chose the appropriate evaluate method.5. Build a Nonlinear fuzzy hierarchy analysis and evaluation model.In order to get a better result of the index influence, and unite the characteristic of Reservoir management. Build a Nonlinear fuzzy hierarchy analysis and evaluation model which is suited for the Reservoir management. This model has the advantages of the traditional ways, also reflect the influence from Personality indicators and overcome the weakness of traditional Linear fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for the prominent influence factors.