Conventional Bus Run-Time Reliability Study

Encouraging using transit network is one of important methods to reduce traffic congestion. With the development of society and economy, the value of travel time in transport system has been more important in recent years. Travel time and travel delay have been the most concerned issue by road users. They chose bus for travel while the time reliability of bus system is well.Conventional bus usually running in the opening transport network with a variety of random factors, that the bus running process is stochastic and complicated。Travelers’ time utilization will be impacted directly by Lower time reliability, and the Enthusiasm for choosing bus will be reduced. Thus, it’s particularly important to study run-time reliability of Conventional bus.First, this paper outlines the connotation of reliability theory, and put emphases on the definitions of reliability, the indexes system and the typical reliability models. On the base of the status quo of reliability, the definition of run-time reliability of Conventional bus has been proposed: In the daily road network, on the stated bus lines, the probability of buses run-time from the Stop i to the stop j have in an acceptable travel time.Then the bus behavior have been analyzed, especially their Micro-run features on the road, intersections and bus stops. Then the important factors will be found out for the bus run-time reliability. Using the reliability research results on the field of transportation for reference, the Calculation Method have been discussed for the bus run-time reliability on section and bus stops to obtain the whole run-time reliability of bus route.