Research On Bus Travel Time Reliability Based On Passenger Perception

Along with the development of society, the traffic pressure was gradually increased, The effective way to alleviate this problem is to develop the public transport, in order to improve the conventional bus attraction of passengers, this paper from the point of view of the passengers, give full consideration to the passengers in the whole process of travel by the outside w orld and its own factors of the psychology of passengers feel. In order to better describe the bus travel time rules, with a probability index of reliability of the described, in reference to the basis of the research results of other scholars proposed a new reliability index, so as to provide services for the research. Passengers can be divided into three processes: waiting, transfer, and driving, so this paper is based on the three aspects of the reliability of passenger perception.Study on passengers’ waiting time reliability, this paper using the data fitting survey out of the site of the passenger arrival time obeys the gamma distribution, the average waiting time are derived in a large number of passengers, can be approximated as expected waiting time of passengers, passengers waiting experience with the experience of the storage pool, and the latest time waiting experience will continue to update the experience pool, finally through the model derived the passengers’ waiting time by estimating the waiting time and the waiting time of a combination of two parts, in the passenger waiting time perception reliability perception by the waiting time and the maximum tolerated waiting time as parameters of reliability evaluation for future reference travel.The theory of passengers’ perceptions of transfer time reliability is the difficulty, through the derivation of the formula has been main factors influencing passenger transfer time is before and after the passengers aboard the two bus car arrival time. In th is paper, by using the cone type flow forecasting method to get the bus on the road travel time, and intersection average delay time were derived, and passengers transfer time, approximate as passengers were estimated transfer time, at the same time, the effect factors on the perception of passenger transfer time are analyzed, and the corresponding analysis of passengers’ perceptions of transfer time reliability.For passenger bus perceived travel time reliability research, first on the travel time influencing factors analysis, obtained by bus in perceived travel time of the main influence factors, using hierarchical analysis method and the parameter analysis method is used to calibrate the model parameters, and 70, 82, 84, three lines of investigation data to validate the model. Most of the relative error is controlled in less than 25%, finally for passenger bus perceived travel time reliability of calculation and analysis, with a numerical example to verify the passenger bus reliability of sensing time minimum 76.7%.In the end of this paper, the reliability of the three reliability can be used to evaluate the reliability of the whole trip.