Research On Parking Demand Forcating Method Of Urban Complex Based On Shared Parking

Due to the sustained and high growth of the level of the socio-economic and income, China’s urban mobility level shows a rapid upward trend, not only leads to traffic congestion, but also makes parking problem more and more prominent. At the same time, the diversification of urban land use in our country makes the original single-purpose parking demand change. Through the parking survey of the urban complex, it is discovered that there exists a difference among parking peak time of the different categories of buildings and the actual parking demand each period of time and identified parking berths according to the allocation index of the various categories of buildings are serious imbalance. So how to balance parking demand different categories of buildings, which has a positive effect on alleviating the contradiction between supply and demand and improving the utilization efficiency of the parking facilities.Firstly, the paper conducts parking survey of urban complex. The characteristics of the parking facilities, parking behavior and different types of parking demand of the urban complex are analyzed based on parking data. Namely, it is discovered that there exists a difference among parking peak time of the different categories of buildings and there is a gap between the actual parking demand each period of time and identified parking berths according to the allocation index of the various categories of buildings.Then, the parking demand forecasting models of single category of building are hackled. Through the analysis of the differences and similarities of parking demand of single and mixed-use land, the factors-location condition, mixed degree, the construction scale and mixed ratio which influence parking demand forecasting of urban complex are determined.And then, based on the parking rate model and in line with the principle of shared resources, the parking demand forecasting model under the condition of single factors is built. Through adopting the method of regression analysis, the paper establishes parking demand forecasting model of urban complex under the combined action of multi factors, which provides the basis for rational determination parking facilities construction scale.Finally, taking Anbu district and Xincheng yuguang in Harbin as the research object, applying the examples to calculation, and compared with actal parking demand, the results show that the model is feasible. In order to ensure the implementation of the idea of shared parking in the port district, some recommendations are proposed from policy, technology and management.