Study On Risk Management Of The Recycling Of Old Industrial Buildings Construction Based On System Dynamics

With the development of city and the adjustment of industrial structure, a large number of abandoned industrial buildings due to be idle. In the process of updating and expansion of the city, the renovation and recycling of old industrial buildings has become increasingly prominent. The recycling of old industrial buildings relates to the protection of historical heritage, and the recycling process are uncertainties and unpredictable, so that the old industrial buildings has greater potential risks during recycling. The construction stage is of the most important, most complex and most risky stage during the recycling of old industrial buildings, so it plays a vital role to do a good job of risk management of the construction stage for risk management of the project.System Dynamics stress to use systemic, complete and dynamic perspective for analysis of the problem, which tends to use a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods for complex systems, a structure- analog functions, and ultimately to solve the problem through simulation analysis. The risk management during the construction of the recycling of old industrial buildings is a complicated system, so using system dynamics method to analyze the risk construction process simulation can control the project risk in advance.The main contents are as follows:(1)This paper proposes a technology roadmap based on an investigation into the country’s old industrial buildings and summarizing the existing problems of risk management during old industrial buildings construction at home and abroad. This paper analyzes the old industrial buildings situation in four areas, the recycling of old industrial buildings statistical number, distribution and structure in the form of time, alteration patterns and structural reliability,and it provide the basis of risk factors for the recycling of old industrial building construction.(2) According to the theory and practice of research and analysis, this paper selects risk factors that exist in the construction process and establishes the risk factors set. By the Vensim system dynamics software, it establishes the recycling of old industrial buildings risk identification model and determine the main factors dynamic relationship between each risk factor and recycling of old industrial building construction target risk through a feedback model.(3) On the basis of risk identification model about the recycling of old industrial buildings, and the combination of writer,s specific practice project,(a project about the recycling renovation of 7 and 8 building of a steel factory in Shanxi),this paper uses Vensim to write flowchart equation and construct risk flowchart to simulate the entire risk management process.(4) According to the risk characterization of the recycling of old industrial buildings during the construction, this paper proposes risk response strategies and simulates risk monitoring methods.