Methods Study On Industrial Structure Optimization Based On The Dual Constraints Of Water Resource And Water Environment Using System Dynamics Model In Changzhou City

At present, the pressure on the supply and demand of water resource in our country tends to increase, water environment pollution become more and more serious, water resources and water environment overloading problem has become the dual constraints of social sustainable development in part of river basin and regional economic. The extensive mode of social economic development and heavy industrial structure are the basic reasons for the water resources and water environment overload. Relying solely on regulating water engineering and the end of pipe control measures can not solve the overload of water resources and water environment, reasonable adjustment and optimization of the industrial structure, and take the transformation of water-saving and pollution control measures have been gradually paid attention to.This paper systematically summarized water resources and water environment bearing force and industrial structure adjustment relevant research results, the water resources, water environment and industrial structure between the coupling relationship and mechanism of action, established the scenario design, using a system dynamics model for simulation of industrial structure optimization method based on Changzhou City, a typical water shortage area as an example to analysis. The main results are as follows:(1) Based on the Kuznets curve model, this paper analyzed the relationship between industrial structure and water resources and water environment. Studies suggest that there is a complex coupling relationship between water resources, water environment and the industrial structure, the change of industrial structure directly affect water resources and water environment status, and due to the water resources and water environmental bearing threshold, the development of the industry has certain constraints. The degree of industrialization will enhance the relationship between the economy and the environment, the performance of the EKC curve move to the right over the top of the EKC, the peak will be delayed arrival. The development of the third industry will lead to the weakening of the relationship between water resources consumption and economic and social development, the economic growth of water resources to bring the pressure will be reduced, the peak of EKC will arrive in advance.(2) Based on the research of water resources, water environment and industrial structure coupling mechanism, this paper designed the construction of "the optimization of industrial structure optimization framework design-system dynamics evaluation model-scenario simulation and optimization of industrial structure-regulation and countermeasures of industrial structure": â‘ the design scheme by industry the structure, water saving scheme and pollutant control scheme of three kinds of single factor scenario arrangement scenario formed in the coupling relationship; â‘¡water resources, water environment and industrial structure based on the construction of the resources and environment subsystem, system dynamics model to optimize the industrial structure of economic and social system and governance cost subsystem.â‘¢ established to the content and the maximum allowed discharged into the river volume constraint scenarios selection criterion, taking the opportunity of scenario based selection to determine conform to the constraints of the scenarios; the choice of income scenarios were optimized using projection pursuit method comparison, optimization of the industrial structure optimization scenarios and to evaluate the feasibility.(3) This paper takes Changzhou city as an example to carry on the empirical research. Under the optimal plan, Changzhou city in 2020 the total economic output reached 740 billion yuan, an average annual growth rate of 7.1%, the industrial structure adjusted to 2:44:54. Unit GDP water consumption decrease significantly, water reuse rate and industrial water reuse rate has been improved, respectively, reached 40% and 85%, respectively, compared with the baseline year increased by 10% and 15% respectively. Urban sewage treatment rate reached 100%, rural domestic sewage treatment rate reached 80%, comprehensive utilization of livestock and poultry manure rate reached 95%, industrial COD and ammonia nitrogen emissions showed a downward trend, the drop zone were 2.7% to 9.8% and 1.8% to 12.1%. And according to the industrial structure, the control index of water saving scheme and pollutant control plan put forward the corresponding control measures.