Research On Optimized Allocation Of Multiple Water Sources And Coordinated Development Of Industrial Structure In Jining City

As the demand for social and economic development continues to increase,Jining City is currently facing problems such as increasing pressure on water supply and demand and unbalanced industrial development structure.The incoordination between resources,economy and environment has gradually become the main obstacle restricting the stable development of social economy.This paper studies the coordinated development of the optimal allocation of water resources and industrial structure adjustment in Jining City,combined with the correlation analysis method and the system dynamics method,and established an evolution model based on the Vensim PLE software platform based on the principle of "stability,efficiency,and priority".Through simulation and comparison of the results of industrial structure adjustment under different schemes,it provides scientific basis and countermeasure suggestions for the optimal allocation of water resources and the coordinated development of the industrial structure in Jining City.The main research content and corresponding conclusions of the thesis are as follows:(1)Based on the research on the results of the existing water resources allocation theory and industrial optimization development theory,collect the corresponding data of Jining City,and analyze the coupling relationship between the three industries and their respective water use by calculating the correlation coefficient.The coefficients are r1=0.792,r2=-0.142,and r3=0.917,indicating that the changes in the primary industry and the tertiary industry are closely related to the amount of water consumption,while the secondary industry is the opposite.To sort out the current distribution and structural problems of water resources in the development process of Jining City generally include: 1.The regional water resources distribution system still needs to be improved,2.The proportion of agricultural water is too high,and the water efficiency needs to be improved,3.The development of economy,water resources and environment is not coordinated.(2)Using the method of system dynamics,the evolution model of water resources optimal allocation and industrial structure adjustment is divided into the water supply subsystem,the water demand subsystem,the social demographic subsystem,the economic subsystem,and the water environment subsystem.It determines the dynamic relationship and mathematical logic relationship among 57sub-elements in the system,and finally establishes the evolution model of Jining City’s water resources optimization allocation and industrial structure adjustment that conforms to the large-scale system structure,parameter calibration and historical verification.(3)Focus on the two typical optimization research objects of Yutai County and Jinxiang County in Jining City,in order to ensure people’s livelihood,ensure development and protect the environment,the industrial structure adjustment plan under comprehensive conditions is determined by designing simulation scenarios and model simulation,and decomposing and transforming it into an analysis of the corresponding changes in water demand.Supply mode and response plan under the requirements of industrial structure adjustment.The research results show that the contradiction between the supply and demand of water resources will gradually expand under the status quo,and the ratio of water supply and demand will drop to 0.8～0.82 in 2030.And on the basis of considering the requirements of different industrial structure adjustments,a simulation of the water supply and demand structure under comprehensive conditions is carried out,and the water supply and demand ratio will reach 0.931 to 0.976 in 2030 on the basis of continuous optimization.Economical water consumption is still the mainstay of the water use structure.Among them,the reduction rate of agricultural water demand has stabilized,and the growth rate of water demand for tertiary industries has been increasing year by year,and attention should be paid in the subsequent adjustment process.The optimized allocation of water resources and industrial structure adjustment programs finally obtained by the research have significant water-economy-environment coordination effects,and the contradiction between water supply and demand and economic development trends have been effectively improved.