Hazardous Material Transportation Path Optimization Based On Value-at-Risk Model

With the development of industrialization, the production and transportation of dangerous goods are increasing every year, the potential safety hazard to human health and the natural environment is also increasing.According to relevant statistics, the annual transport volume of dangerous goods already more than two hundred million tons, there are more than 95% of dangerous goods involved in long distance transportation,82% of which are transported by road. In recent years, due to the increase in the quantity of dangerous goods, there are serious accidents in the process of transport, the existing transport management has been difficult to adapt to such a large number of dangerous goods transport. As to the personal and property safety of citizens of dangerous goods transport problem, the path optimization based on value at risk can reduce the risk of dangerous goods road transport, and provide theoretical support for the transportation management department and the transportation enterprise decision.First in this paper that domestic and international transport of dangerous goods basic management, dangerous goods transport risk analysis and path optimization research were summarized, discussed the development trend and existing main problems, and systematically analyzed the basic theory of dangerous goods transport,then summarizes nine commonly used classical risk assessment model and analyze the characteristics of these model, then brings the introduction of the concept of Value-at-Risk with subjective preference of policy-makers. This paper provides VaR risk model for hazmat transportation and designs corresponding algorithm. Numerical analysis and case analysis are proposed in this paper by which the nine classical risk assessment model and value-at-risk model can be compared to illustrate the validity and applicability of VaR model. Finally, this paper puts forward the dangerous goods transportation risk management system, control flow, control technology from the aspects of people, vehicles, materials, environment and management, and the specific transport of dangerous goods risk control measures are given.