The Route Optimization Study Of Hazardous Materials Multimodal Transportation Based On Dynamic Risk

Considering the situation of high-probabilities accidents of hazardous materials transportation in China, in order to promote the sustainable and healthy development, to reduce global energy and resource depletion, to protect the social environment and to maintain the social economy health stable development, this article will focus on the research of the transportation of hazardous materials dynamic risk.In the first part will take into account the changes of probability based on the time varying, then consider the risk factors which have a great impact on the hazardous materials transportation based on the historical data statistics, and establish the risk evaluation model based on traditional model, at last according to an example for analysis; In the second part is mainly considering risk factors which will be considered in the model which will be the constraint of the route decision making of an enterprise, establish a route optimization model of hazardous materials multimodal transportation based on risk constraint; Finally, in consideration of the mutual influence and mutual restraint of two levels, that is to say, the government and enterprises, then will establish a bilevel programming model, for upper programming model considering the risk minimization, which is the goal of government and the lower programming model consideration the costs minimization, which is the attention of the enterprises, and then give a specific algorithm to solve the model, and according to the result given the relevant policy advices, and provide decision-making reference and technical support in the way of reducing the transportation of hazardous materials accident disaster.