The Causation Analysis Of Inland River Ship Collision Based On Bayesian Network

In the rapid growing period in contemporary China’s economy, people begin gradually to focus on inland river shipping. This way of transportation with less pollution and larger power provides great convenience for people in the process of transportation. However, with the development of inland river shipping, the number of ships begins to increase, the shipping density begins to enlarge, the ship collision accidents occur frequently. So how to improve the safety of shipping effectively and reduce the collision accident rate has become an urgent problem in inland river shipping. Therefore, it is necessary to have a clear understanding of today’s status of inland river shipping in China. It is also necessary to use an effective research method to analyze the causes of inland river ship collision accidents and discuss the causes further which can offer some decision basis for related government departments and enterprises, and finally realize the goal of reducing the accident rate of inland river shipping effectively.Firstly, this thesis summarized ship collision accidents, the analysis of the accidents causation and the concepts of Bayesian network completely. Based on that, this thesis has extracted the affecting factors which brought the occurrence of each accident through systematic analysis of the collected samples of accidents. It also analyzed the relationship between the factors and built the causation chain of the accidents. Secondly, this thesis constructed the structure of Bayesian network model in inland river ship collision accidents through integrating the causation chain. It obtained the condition probability table of each node in the network by using the method of mathematical statistics and then constructed a complete Bayesian network model. Finally, based on the Bayesian network model, this thesis verified it by using the actual cases to prove the practicability and reliability of the model and then on the basis of the verification this thesis did case presuming and analyzed each factor influence in the accident.This thesis found:(1) China’s construction of inland river shipping started late and with the problems such as overall low ship technical level and lower proportion in advanced navigation channel.(2) The weakness in daily management of inland river shipping was the main factor that caused the frequent occurrence of inland river shipping accidents.(3) Improper duty was also a major cause of collision accidents in inland river shipping. Finally, according to the results of these studies, this thesis put forward countermeasures and suggestions which could reduce ship collision accidents effectively in inland river shipping.