The Risk Assessment Research Of Power Grid Caused By Wildfire Disaster

In recent years, the state has adopted a series of policies such as Forest Conservation to protect forest resources, so that the density of the forest vegetation and forest cover a increased substantially and also provides a great deal of combustible material for the outbreak of fires.In global warming, under the influence of circulation anomalies such as abnormal climatic factors, little humidity, high temperature, wind speed and high fire weather continued drought, more and more number of fires broke clear upward trend.Power system is the main artery of the national economy and energy to provide the necessary impetus for the development of all walks of life energy, and it also is an important national infrastructure, is the material basis of energy configuration. In order to protect the normal production and life of the people, to maintain the normal order of the country, we must ensure that the power system security, quality of operation.In order to meet the needs of China’s rapid economic development continues to accelerate the pace of construction of power grids, grid-scale growing, under restricted conditions, environmental protection and land resources, a large number of long-distance high-voltage transmission lines to take the way across the forest traces.Once the fires occurred, the fire can easily spread to nearby overhead line corridor, causing forced outages of transmission lines, and because of fires generally longer duration, resulting in most of the reclosing fail and cause blackouts. When the grid area, while a number of transmission lines affected by the disaster fires, will result in large-scale power outages, safe and stable operation of the grid to pose a serious threat.Modern social and economic development of the increasingly strong demand for electricity, the power of modern social development and security has become an important guarantee for economic progress, but also an important part of the national energy security.China’s power industry has entered the era of large power grids in large units, high-voltage, high automation features, power management has improved continuously, the level of security and stability of the power system is also greatly improved, but the natural disasters caused by accidents still occur Grid.we unable prevention of natural disasters fundamentally, but we can take certain measures and precautions to reduce their damage to the power grid disasters.A summary of the full text reads as follows:The first chapter- Introduction.Mainly describes the background and significance of the grid fires disaster risk assessment, and summarizes the research status of natural disaster risk assessment and prediction of fires, and analyzes the shortcomings of research exists, and finally a brief introduction of the content of this research and technology roadmap.The second chapter-Hazard analysis of power grid caused by wildfires.First, an overview of the causes and characteristics of fires disaster, and the country’s forest fire prevention measures were calculated, and then study the mechanism tripped circuit fires and the reason for the failure of reclosing proposed transmission line fires prevention measures.The third chapter-Grid fires establishing disaster risk model.First, an overview of the power of traditional risk assessment models and natural disaster risk assessment model, while retaining the power of traditional probabilistic risk assessment model by multiplying the basic structural features of the consequences, based on multiple factors into account the characteristics of natural disaster risk assessment, the establishment of the grid fires disaster risk assessment model, namely the grid fires disaster risk= probability × fires fires under conditions of line trip probability × grid disaster losses.The fourth chapter-Fires disaster probability grid modeling.Grid fires disaster probabilistic model consists of two sub-models:one fires probability model, and second, the conditions under fires probability model line trip.The possibility of fires occurring generally with forest fire danger rating, said the forest fire weather forecasting system established in this paper grade by the National Meteorological Center of fire weather were forecast, combined with historical data on the basis of the probability of fires fully quantified.Under the conditions for fires line trip probability calculations, based on the mathematical model of this paper analyzes the spread of fires in case there is no wind, the wind and the fire spread, the integration of the various factors that affect the air gap breakdown voltage, under the conditions established fires line trip probability calculation model and calculation examples.The fifth chapter-disasters fires grid modeling.Power loss disasters including fires breakdown maintenance costs and power losses.Maintenance cost is the total cost to repair the grid before the extent of the disaster need to pay the normal power supply. According to the construction costs of grid maintenance costs and historical statistics to estimate.Power loss is multiplied by the amount of power outage with the unit cost of the loss to be calculated.Unit costs per unit of electricity blackouts contribution to GDP expressed blackout amount is calculated based on the average mean time to repair power lines and lines of previous fires, the last fault maintenance costs and power losses to calculate the total loss of the grid fires disasters.