Risk Assessment Of Power System With Extreme Weather And Wind Power Integration

With the global climate change and wind energy as the main form of renewable energy development, weather factors are becoming the main cause of system failure, the access of large scale wind power increases the difficulty of the operation of the system. Therefore, the study of the weather conditions and the risk analysis of the wind power access to the system on the running scale is conducive to the operation of the personnel to deepen the understanding of the operating state, to provide technical support for the operation of the operation of the decision.In order to prevent the occurrence of power failure and improve the security of the power system, since 1930s, researchers have carried out a lot of research on power system reliability, and have achieved a series of results. The probability characteristic of power system behavior is the source of power system risk. In 1990s, the probability method is introduced into the power system operation evaluation, and the influence of many factors on power system is studied. In the analysis of transmission line outage probability, the load of transmission line is the main factor, and the risk decision model is established. The simulation results show that the outage probability and load of transmission line have a significant impact on the risk decision-making.Based on the analysis of the results of previous studies, this paper studies the output characteristics of wind power. In this paper, the fluctuation of wind power is analyzed by three time scales, such as the day, the month and the year. The intermittent of wind power has a serious impact on the power balance of power system. In this paper, the intermittent of the wind power is studied by different low power (including zero power) duration. The change speed and continuity of wind power were studied by genetic method. In order to study the transfer characteristics of wind power, the wind power is divided into a certain number of power, the transfer matrix and the transfer rate matrix of the wind power are established. The transfer rate of different power ranges is analyzed. It reveals that the degree of the fluctuation and the randomness of the different power ranges are different.In this paper, the risk assessment of wind power generation is studied, and the weather factors are considered. Risk assessment of power system is the evaluation of the system risk caused by the failure of components. Operation risk assessment of power system includes 4 basic steps:the establishment of component outage model, selection system, system state analysis, risk index calculation. The element state probability based on Markov process is analyzed, and the outage model of generator is established, and the outage model of transmission line based on weather three state is established. The non-sequential model is called the state sampling method. The probability of each component is different. The state of each element is determined by sampling. The state of all elements is determined to form a system state. The operational risk of power system can be measured by quantitative risk index, and the risk index system of power system operation risk is established in this paper. This paper uses the RTS-79 test system for power system operation risk analysis. As the transmission lines are exposed to the outside, it is easy to be affected by weather conditions, and the probability of failure of transmission lines in different weather conditions is different, when a certain line is faulty, the other lines are prone to overload. The fluctuation of wind power mainly causes the risk of abandoned wind and the risk of the loss, and the risk is different in different time. When the wind power is less, the next time the risk of abandoning the wind is relatively large. Preventive measures can be taken to increase the high speed power supply. When the wind power is large, if the lack of peaking capacity system, the risk of the loss of the load at the next moment is relatively large. Preventive measures can be taken to increase the high speed power supply and increase the standby capacity of the system.