The Research Of Randomness And Application Of The Critical Chain

Construction period of project is long, and it is difficult to finish, and it will be affected by many uncertainty factors, it is always delayed. Therefore, a large number of studies have been conducted, and some effective solutions were put forward. Which includes the method of critica chain technology. At present, the research of critical chain mainly focused on the identification of critical chain and buffer Settings. Because of the influence of various uncertain factors, critical chain has randomness. So, the research of this problem is rare, and cause that the technology could not spread in terms of schedule management. The markov chain is suitable for the randomness of key chain in the study. Therefore, the markov chain and critical chain technology was combined in this paper to study the randomness of key chain. It is a new method to solve the problem.First, the process the randomness of the operation time was studied in this paper. Under effect of various uncertain factors, The operation time of process is uncertain. On the basis of consulting a large number of literature and researches, the influence factors of process operation time were analyzed, and the grey correlation analysis and the method of entropy weight method were used to determine the weights of affecting factors. According to the influence factors of existing weights and the probability density distribution function of each factors to the process, the random Numbers were generated by Easyfit software. Then, with the help of MATLAB software, the process operation time was determined. Compared to the fixed time, the result more reasonable. It is a scientific method to determine the process operation time. With the consideration of randomness adequately, the latest start time of each process was calculated by using Win QSB software, and the key chain was got by adopting heuristic algorithm. The most likely key chain was chosen with treating the key chain as a markov chain. Then, project buffer and into the buffer were set by using the root of variance method, which provided a most possible chain and time limit for a construction enterprise. Meanwhile, this method is better than the traditional methods.Based on this, Markov chain prediction model is established, Completion of next working procedure for the critical chain is forecasted. Transform the critical chain into a serial chain. Statistics of the state of each phase and calculate the state transition matrix. Then according to the C-K equation calculation step transition probability matrix. Analysis of the one-step transition probability matrix to get the next process state. To ensure timely completion of the project, we should take measures in advance to provide the basis.The combination of the Markov chain and the critical chain were put into the field of project schedule management. In order to provide a new idea and direction in studying on schedule management. It enrich the existing schedule management method in theory. Pointed out the direction in the research on schedule management in the future.It has certain theoretical value and practical significance.