| Since the Reform and Opening-up,our economy has been greatly developed,and the transportation industry is no exception.However,with the development of integrated transportation system,energy consumption and transportation carbon emissions have become thorny problems that we need to solve.Energy saving and emission reduction is the trend of the times,which is of great significance to the sustainable development of society.This paper selects China’s transportation system as the research object,through the establishment of the model and system simulation,puts forward relevant strategic suggestions on China’s energy conservation and emission reduction.Firstly,through literature research and related theoretical study,this paper combines transportation system with society,environment,energy and economy,analyzes and determines the influencing factors of carbon emission and energy consumption of transportation system.On the basis of the above analysis of the influencing factors,by means of system dynamics,this paper establishes a comprehensive analysis model of transportation,energy and carbon emission The results show that there are three kinds of causality diagrams: the causality diagram of transportation,energy and carbon emissions system,the causality diagram of transportation and economy and population system,and the causality diagram of transportation energy conservation and emission reduction system.After specific analysis and consideration,the system flow chart is established.Combined with the relevant official authoritative data,the parameter equation of variables in the flow chart is determined,and the SD model is established.After the relevant test of the model,with the help of Vensim simulation software,the influence of various factors on energy consumption and carbon emissions is observed and analyzed by adjusting the relevant coefficients or values.Finally,through scenario setting,the paper puts forward relevant feasible suggestions on the ways of energy saving and emission reduction of transportation system.Through the simulation,it is found that reducing the emission coefficient of energy fuels,especially reducing the emission coefficient of fuel oil and diesel,has a good effect on traffic emission reduction,but it has little impact on traffic energy saving.In addition to diesel locomotive,reducing the energy consumption coefficient of other means of transportation also has a good effect of energy saving and emission reduction.In addition,the proportion of highway and aviation in the system should be reduced as far as possible,and the proportion of water transport and railway should be increased at the same time.In terms of energy structure,we should develop more clean fuels such as natural gas,electric power and LNG,and reduce the use of kerosene,gasoline,diesel and other fuels.Improving the efficiency of treatment,increasing the investment coefficient of CO2 treatment and environmental protection also have good emission reduction effect,but the effect of traffic energy saving is very little. |