A Study On The Risk Assessment For Small Ships Transiting The Waters Off North Shandong In Winter Monsoon Season

Northern waters off Shandong is the throat of north-south waterway in China, it is one of the key areas of "Six district and a line", the ship crowded navigable. According to Shandong Maritime Safety Administration statistics of ship traffic past five years, small ships accounted for 20%. Because of poor security situation of small ships, coupled by the winter northeast monsoon, the small ship sank accident often happened, to bring great loss of life and property of the people. Small-scale risk assessment of the safety of ships crossing at the northern waters off Shandong in winter windy weather, how to effectively prevent and reduce small ships accidents become an important issue.This thesis discusses the characteristics of the northern waters off Shandong navigation environment, combing the waters in winter weather and sea conditions characteristics, the basic situation of small ships crossing the waters were investigated, statistical analysis of the characteristics of small ships causes of the accident. Secondly, the administrative jurisdiction according Shandong Maritime Safety Administration, the waters are divided into Jinan, Yantai, Weihai three waters,13 Factors to tonnage, cargo types, age of the ship, the wind, flow, etc. affect small ships navigation safety on the basis of, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for three navigable waters of small ships overall assessment of security risks, built evaluation model, on this basis, and then through a Bayesian algorithm to different tonnage of small vessels under different wind a security risk in any waters were estimated. Eventually, according to the safety evaluation and calculation conclusions, early warning and preventive measures proposed maritime security management strategies and recommendations, up for the lack of small vessel traffic safety management, it has a certain theoretical guidance and practical significance.