Research On The Ship Dynamic Risk In Qingdao Port

With the development of world shipping and technology, ships present the development trend of the rapidness,specialization and large-scale,at the same time, behind prosperity and rapid development picture,maritimeaccidentsrapidlyincrease.In order to avoid the happening of maritime tragedy,people on the navigationandsafety of Marine environment should proceed in-depth riskidentification and risk managementresearch.Through effective risk identification and risk management process,the risk of the staff injury or property loss reduce and maintain at an acceptable and belowlevel.Maritime accidents are mostly caused by human factors,so it is necessary for the safety evaluation of the navigable waters.At present more popular safety risk analysis method shave the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) evaluation method, quantitative analysis methodand analysis method based on simulation technologyetc. Bothquantitative, qualitative, and based on the safety of the simulation analysis, only when the obtainedsource data is accurate long-term historical official data,the analysis result is reliable and convincing.This paper collected and organized the relevant research data,andanalyzed the subject of the research status at home and abroad,through the basic theory of the FSA and the unascertained measure theory,analyzed the main factors of influencing Qingdao port waters dynamic risk,through combination methodof the quantitative analysis and expert evaluation,constructed the Qingdao port waters dynamic risk evaluation model,and based on the unascertained measure theory,established the subordinating degree functionof each evaluation index,established the weights ofprimary indicators and secondary indicators in the evaluation system by means of questionnaire survey,eventually,calculated the risk of wateras an example for Qingdao port main channel, theresults satisfied the actual situation,proved the availability of the evaluation model.