Research On The Evolution Of Emerg-Ency Shelters Ln Jianchuan City

Aggregation is an essential feature of cities. Cities are not only where large populations are aggregated, but aslo where social wealth generated by human production activities and infrastructure that facitates peolpe’s production and life are aggregated. Innumerable loss of life and property will follow should a disaster befall a city. A city is a large system formed by countless coordinated and mutually binding sub-systems, one of which is the sub-system of urban disaster shelters. As such a shelter can play a positive role in alleviating the impact of a disaster in a disaster-stricken city, it has been under heated discussion in academia. Research in emergency shelters is of great significance to the theorectical expansion of the disaster shelter system in a city.This dissertation studies the evolvement features of emergency shelters in Jianchuan, Yunnan through archives review, field study and the fractal theory. First, the spatial distributions of emergency shelters in Jianchuan’s main urban areas (hereinafter referred to as "the shelters") in1985,2000and2014are presented using the GIS software. In this way, a diachronic diagram for the shelters’ spatial distributions is built. In order to render a better understanding of the distribution features of the shelters and reach a more accurate measurement of their relevant dimensions, a fractal measurement method of network dimensions is used to facilitate the study. Through the use of this method, the capacity dimension and the information dimension of the shelters’ spatial distributions in three study years are also measured. Then evolvement patterns of the shelters’ spatial distributions are deduced following the comparison of the shelers’ distribution features in three study years. Second, an AHP model is built for the impact factors of the shelters’ evolvement using the fractal analysis method. The imapct factors are ranked by the severity of their impact on the evolvement of the shelters based on the scores given by AHP experts in a survey. An analysis is then made on the relationship between the relevant indicators of the factors and the expansion of the shelters using the significant level analysis method in the correlation analysis method. Finally, a prediction is made on the evolvement trend of the shelters’ spatial structure, shape and functions.The conclusions are:(1) There has been a shift in the spatial distribution of the shelters from a concentrated model to a balanced one;(2) The spatial distribution of the shelters evolves from one that defies the characteristics of a fractal structure to one that completely fits the characteristics, with the Dc value of the capacity dimension and the Di value of the information dimension changing within the range of0-2;(3) The factors that affect the evolvement of the shelters’ spatial distribution mainly involve four areas, namely, urban population, awareness of disaster prevention, urban construction, and urban economy, which are ranked in a descending order based on the severity of their impact.