Research On Urban Public Transportation Reasonable Development Level

With the acceleration of urbanization and the rapid growth of private car ownership, traffic pressure increased tremendously because of the rapid expansion of traffic demand. Many problems such as traffic congestion, parking difficulties and environmental pollution are increasingly prominent. Giving priority to the development of public transport comes to the way of resolving these problems. Under the background of "public transport metropolis", many cities have formulated a public transport planning to develop the public transportation. However, many cities’actual development level in the target year is far from the goals made in public transportation planning. In order to determine the reasonable development goals of urban public transportation and to provide basis for urban public transport planning, the paper based on the technology planning project of "evaluation index system of urban public transport" of Anhui communications department, and study on reasonable development level of urban public transportation and its evaluation.First, according to the principle of purpose, scientific, systematic and operability, evaluation indicators were selected from alternative indicators of operation ability, service ability and development ability by using the expert consulting, evaluation index system of reasonable development level of urban public transportation is established, and involved measures are quantified. Next, based on the analysis of urban pubic transport status and the traditional "four stages" traffic demand forecast model, the influence factors of urban public transportation are analyzed. And the indicators of urban public transportation development level are forecasted by using residual modification GM(1,1) model and the prediction method of urban public transportation development level is explored. Once again, the evaluation process is given and the weight of each indicator is calculated by Structure entropy weight method. Multi-attribute decision making is introduced and the grey correlation evaluation model based on improved TOPSIS method is used for the longitudinal and horizontal evaluation of urban public transportation. Which former is the comprehensive evaluation of reasonable level of urban public transportation based on the results of prediction, the development situation and the planning objectives, and the latter is of the development coordination between urban public transportation and the city for cities in the same category by considering the differences of cities. At last, taking some cities in Anhui province as examples, and with the help of MATLAB and EXCEL, the model is verified and application analysis is given, the results showed that the research finding has a good practicability and it is certain guiding significance for the determination of reasonable development goals of urban public transportation.