Dynamic Control Of Limited Water Level And Risk On Flood Season Staging At The Baise Reservoir

Dynamic control of limited water level can coordinate the contradiction of flood control and benefit better, and is also one of the effective ways to flood-water resources utilization in reservoir. The thesis discussed flood-water resources utilization at the Baise Reservoir from the following aspects:flood season staging of the Baise Reservoir, dynamic control of limited water level at the Baise Reservoir and the flood control risk of the system.First of all, the methods of hydrological eigenvalue, probability change-point, average change-point and fractal analysis were adopted to divide the flood season at the Baise Reservoir. With relative membership degree as index, the thesis optimized flood season stages at the Baise Reservoir by using the Cunderlik method:pre-flood season(5-1-6-15), main flood season (6-16-8-22), post-flood season (8-23-10-31).The second, by calculating design flood in stages and flood area composition, the thesis made joint dispatching of the Baise Reservoir and the Laokou Reservoir, with different limited water level at the Baise Reservoir. Considered the premise that the flood control risk of design flood and check flood did not increase at the Baise Reservoir and the Laokou Reservoir, the region of limited water level at the Baise Reservoir is:main flood season (214-215m), post-flood season (214-223m).Then, used the Copula-SAR(1) model to simulate the flood hydrograph whose flood peak and flood volume were consistent, combined the design flood with the simulated flood on certain rules, the thesis made joint dispatching of the Baise Reservoir and the Laokou Reservoir, with different limited water level at the Baise Reservoir. Considered the risk of flood overtopping and overflow, on the basis of 200-year flood control objective in Nanning, the region of limited water level at the Baise Reservoir is:main flood season(214-215.5m), post-flood season(214-223m).The last, by choosing more security solution between design flood routing method and the Copula-SAR(1) model for stochastic simulation, the region of limited water level at the Baise Reservoir is:main flood season(214-215m), post-flood season(214-223m). Dynamic control of limited water level at the Baise Reservoir does not increase the flood control risk of design flood and check flood at two of the reservoirs, which not merely can meet the objective of 200-year flood control in Nanning but also can increase water head for power generation in storage period and fill storage ratio in flood season after at the Baise Reservoir. Dynamic control of limited water level can implement flood-water resources utilization in the Baise Reservoir.