Security Assessment Of Water Resources In Ningxia

Water resources as the focus of current research, much attention has been paid to its security. This paper in the domestic and foreign related research of water resources security basis, combined with the characteristics of the water resources in Ningxia, puts forward the concept of suitable for Ningxia water resources security, select the 4 categories (the water resources condition, the ability of social coordination, the ability of economic coordination, coordination of ecological environment) of 19 evaluation indexes, building safety evaluation index system of water resource in Ningxia, and applying AHP of each index assignment. Take Ningxia and Yinchuan in2006-2013 as an example, Application of analysis to evaluate the two region 8 years of water resources security of fuzzy set, and the water security situation from 2014 to 2020 is forecasted. The main conclusions are:(1) Ningxia water resources security in the overall basic level 3 security status, mainly affected by the water resources condition of the larger. In 2006 for the 4 grade (Unsafe),3 grade (Basic safety) for the year 2007 to 2013.(2) Yinchuan city water resources security by water resources, society, economy, ecological environment of the four subsystems of the role of coordination,2006～2007 water resources security in Yinchuan city is in a state of insecurity(Level 4),2008-2013 is basically safe(Level 3).(3) The prediction results show that:Based on the gray GM (1,1) safety evaluation on water resources forecasting model and Logistic equation of grey forecasting model of each index value prediction, model meets the requirements of accuracy, the simulation value and the actual value for the appropriate.Ningxia water resources safety prediction results show that, in the coordination of social, economic and ecological environment, Ningxia water resources security began to change from the basic security to the security, and reach the basic security in 2019 (Level 2) state.2013-2020 years, the Yinchuan city water resources security sharply rise phenomenon, and gradually stabilized development state. Which in 2014 for the 3 level (basic safety), in 2015 for the 2 level (safe),2016～2010 years 1 grade (very safe).