Study On Water Level Forecasting And Dynamiccontrol Of The Limit Water Level Based On ANFIS

The present water resources in China is facing a major crisis, aiming at the increasingly serious problems of the shortage of water resource, water conservancy department put forward the new water management concept of “floodwater Utilization ". The concept means from the current "flood control" to "flood management". Reservoir, as an important flood control water conservancy project, being used to improve efficiency of utilization of flood resources is one of the effective ways to realize the floodwater utilization. The key technology of this pathway is the scientific control of reservoir flood limit water level in flood season. While the scientific and accurate prediction of the reservoir water level, not only to the reservoir water resources optimization management is crucial, but also provide the reliable policy-making basis for the dynamic control of flood limited water level in flood decision.As an example, the East Wushi reservoir being used adaptive neural fuzzy system method andusing the measured rainfall forecast, reservoir water level hydrological elements of information. Input the 24 h catchment average rainfall, and reservoir water level rise, and the average discharge of 24 h reservoir,the paper establishing the forecast model of reservoir water level, and evaluate the forecast effect by using the correlation coefficient method and error variance method. Based on establishing the water level forecasting model, combining with the analysis of reservoir flood forecast and operation risk, the paper uses the trend line method and P- III curve method obtaining the risk of error frequency curve and risk frequency of error function, and then sets up the dynamic control of flood limited water level model with considering forecast error risk, and get the dynamic control of flood limited water level should be relative and domain the rainfall magnitude is calculated according to the model. The results show that using the method of correlation coefficient and error variance method to evaluate the results of the model are 0.994 and 0.184 respectively. Evaluation results show that the water level of reservoir simulation selection of ANFIS to establish the reservoir water level forecasting model can forecast effectively. According to the limited water level dynamic control model is established, the calculated when the forecast future 24 h will appear rainfall magnitude of light rain, moderate rain, heavy rain, rainstorm and heavy rainstorm when the flood limited water level dynamic control domains respectively:[104.43,105.7],[104.36,104.43],[104.09,104.36],[103.72,104.09],[102,103.72].