The Risk Analysis Of Collision Accidents In Changxing Island Port

Ship collision accident which is regarded as one of the most high-profile accident type by maritime safety researchers accounts for the highest rate in marine traffic accidents. The most important security research is the quantification of ship collision risk which many experts and scholars at home and abroad have obtained certain achievement and innovation for many years, but it still need to do further study.The historical ship collision data of Changxing Island port which is under construction in this paper is too few to fulfill the requirements of analysis and calculation. How to use limited resources to quantify collision risk becomes the core problem. According to the waterway planning data and dock forecasting data in the’The Twelfth Five Year Plan of Changxing Island port, this paper selects IWRAP model to calculate the probability of ship collision in crossing waterways and head-on waterways and collects two hundreds statistics of ship collision accident reports which choose seven parameters including ship tonnage, ship type, encounter situation, collision angle, collision part, ship velocity and accident consequence grade in the world since 2000. Using the multi Logistic regression model in SPSS software to calculate the first six factors which effect on the level of accident consequence, and the probability model is concluded that encounter situation, collision angle, collision part and ship velocity affect all levels of accident consequence grade. The risk value of selecting water is the product of the accident probability and all level of probability of accident consequences.According to the results, the extent of risk can be compared and the most effective measures of reducing collision risk are to change the size of parameters. The method in this paper can help the related department to improve their safety management.