Research On Vessel Collision Risk In Laotieshan Area

Marine transportation plays an irreplaceable role in goods circulations and transport systems.At the same time,it is also a high-risk industry.Once an accident occurs,the economic losses and casualties are often difficult to be estimated.As the traffic artery connects Huang Hai and Bohai Bay,the Laotieshan waterway has the characteristics of large traffic volume,cross-traffic flow and complex navigation environment,making it key area of maritime administration.Compared with the traffic lane,the traffic environment in the warning area is more complex,and the situation of the ship meeting is more complicated.The collision types include overtaking,crossing,head-on and so on,leading to a high collision risk probability.Therefore,this paper focuses on the risk of collision in Laotieshan precautionary area.In this paper,the traffic flow in Laotieshan precautionary area is simplified and divided into 6 sections.According to the collision type,the whole warning area is divided into 7 regions.Then,we build the collision probability calculation system and calculate the probability of collision in each region under COWI model using MATLAB software.The rationality and feasibility of the model is validated by the collision accident in the last 10 years,which proves.At last,Logistic regression analysis is carried out on the consequences of the collision in the warning area.The ship's tonnage,ship speed,ship type,collision location,collision angle and age are selected as the evaluation indexes and the effects of the first five factors on the consequence level are analyzed.The probability level model of consequence level is obtained.Finally the value of the collision risk in the precautionary area is obtained by multiplying the probability of collision and the probability of consequence.Through the analysis of the results,it is concluded that the value of collision risk in Laotieshan precautionary area stays in the acceptable range but measures should be taken to reduce the collision accident.The risk values for regions 1 to 4 are relatively high,and the ship should take good seamanship when traveling into these areas.