Study On Real-time Risk Assessment Method Of Dispatching Operations Process

As an important means to change power grid structure or operating condition,dispatching operation is one of the daily works of electric power enterprises. Areasonable dispatching operation is an effective way to improve the operating state ofsystem, as well as keep the grid running stably. Considering its long duration and suchuncertainties as weather and equipment condition, dispatching operation usually hasto be faced with some risk. So before the dispatching orders are carried out, it isnecessary to analyze the risks during dispatching operation process to ensure they canbe controlled. Since being introduced into the power system in1990s, the risk theoryhas been widely used in operation and planning of the system. Leading the riskassessment theory into dispatching operation, a method is proposed to calculate therisks in dispatching operation process. The main work of this thesis includes4parts:1. Sort and analyze the dispatching operation, and study the decompositionmethod of dispatching orders. The concept of dispatching operation process state ispresented and the risks in the state are pointed out.2. Analyze the risk factors in dispatching operation process state. Correcting thereliability parameters in traditional power system risk assessment, this thesis proposeda real-time probabilistic model considering the influence of weather, equipmentcondition and social period.3. Summarize the problems in system concerned by dispatchers, and propose apower flow sensitivities based linear optimal model, in which the consequence isquantified. A sensitivity method is used to linearize the constraints in solving theoptimal model, so as to convert it into a typical linear model, which improves thereal-time performance of proposed method.4. Finally, the IEEE-RTS is used to verify the proposed concept and method,and the practicability and validity of proposed method is illustrated by three cases.