The Pre-control Model Of The Grid Hazard Source Based On The Ultra Short-term Load Forecast

With the rapid development of grid technology, grid coverage is expanding rapidly, and has a higher level of intelligence, informationization and automation, which makes the grid to run more efficiently, but also make the power grid structure is complicated, led to lurk in the grid many hard to find the hazards, and these hazards are always threatening the safety of power grid. Although the causes of these hazards may vary, but they are also not allow to ignore the consequences, The sooner the hazards of early warning and control of power grids, the safer means that grid. Therefore, the study of theory and method of grid risk pre-control, has the characteristics of simple, rapid and effective. Through the analysis of the factors of impact on power grid safety and power grid hazards can be divided into natural disasters, equipment failure and load in class three, including natural disasters as well as the equipment failure, in today’s society has been relatively mature early warning and control mechanisms, but in terms of load change class, as the electricity is responsible for structure, load change frequency and amplitude are moving into the direction of faster and more. To such hazards for effective early warning and control, this article from the Angle of load change grid method.considering hazard, in view of the power grid load change class hazards of the characteristics of frequency is fast, by ultra short-term load forecasting approach, this paper established based on ultra short-term load forecasting data, to node balance, automatic AGC control as the way, adjust the model of generator output. The model structure is simple, fast operation, high accuracy, effectively control counter for potential hazards. Through the analysis of actual data, verify the validity and practicability of the model.