Study On Flood Forecast Model For Huanglongtan Reservoir And Its Applied Research

Generally, Huanglongtan reservoir adopts the Xin’anjiang flood forecast model and other model is relatively rare. So three kinds of different mechanism of hydrological models were selected in the paper (distributed conceptual hydrological models-Xin’anjiang flood forecast model, lumped conceptual hydrological models-NAM model, distributed hydrological model-HEC-HMS model), and try to apply it in Huanglongtan reservoir flood forecast.Firstly, combining with the domestic and overseas existing research result, the paper analyzes the principle of the three kinds of hydrological models, runoff mechanism and running environment of each model; Then, we determined the computation procedure and mathematical model based on the principles of these models, the input values of the models and the major parameters; At last, we apply nine training periods obtaining the parameters and seven periods test the parameters in the models. Nash and correlation coefficients are used to evaluate the accuracy of the modeling and analyze the modeling result. The result shows that Xin’anjiang Model’s forecasting result is more preferably, HEC-HMS model comes second, and NAM model last. But both the mean Nash coefficient and the correlation coefficient of each model can meets accuracy requirements in calibration as well as validation periods, which reflects that each model has good applicability in Zhuhe Basin. The research result verifies the three models’applicability in studied basin, and can expand the studying direction of flood forecasting techniques of Huanglongtan Reservoir.