Study On The Flood And Tide Forecast Of Tidal River And Upstream Reservoir Inference Operating Mode

World widely, great parts of socio-economic activities happen in deltas, where tides and floods affect more frequently. As the results, tides and floods may cause much more damage to deltas than other places. To eliminate flood and tide damage, both engineering and non-engineering measures were studied in the past decades. Modern progress in monitoring, communications and forecasting and computer technology provide a hopeful alternative for non-engineering measures playing an mort important role.To successfully control flood in deltas, two key issues must be resolved. One is the forecast of tidal and flood. The other is forecast-based upper stream reservoir operation. Thus, focusing on the key issues, this paper studied tide and flood forecast methods, risk analysis, and reservoir inference dynamic operating mode. Taking Panjin, Yingkou as backgrounds, this paper studied related key issues, and the main progress is summarized as follows:1. Chaos phase space of YingKou high tidal level is reconstructed and its chaotic characteristics are validated, which serves as the foundation for high tidal forecasting.Phase space reconstruction is the foundation of the chaos analysis and forecasting. Firstly, the phase space of high tidal is reconstructed; Then, the power spectrum mothed for qualitative analysis is studied; thirdly, G-P method, Lyapunov Exponents for quantitative analysis are used for validation of the YingKou high tidal level. These steps provide theoretic possibility for high tidal level chaotic system forecasts.2. The fuzzy SVM of chaotic time series model is developed, and the forecasting precision of high tidal level chaotic system is improved.Analyzing the characteristic of certainty and nonlinear of chaotic system, the prediction model of chaotic flow time series using fuzzy support vector machine is developed. This model introduces fuzzy membership function for considering the inner mechanism changed with time. Effects of fuzzy membership function parameter are discussed in the example. The results of Yingkou high tidal level forecaste show that the model is of good performance. Moreover, the introduction of fuzzy membership function reflects the effect of the recent data and makes the forecasting results credible. On runoff time series forecasting, this method shows a good result, too.3. Corresponding rising difference model and Kalman filter real-time correction method are used for tidal river flood forecasting and remote sensing rainfall data absence reservoirs, this paper studied tide and flood forecast method. The results play an important role for real-time reservoir operation decision making.Flood forecaste in the tidal river and upstream reservoir is the foundation of the real-time reservoir operation and basin wide flood disaster elimination. Firstly, Kalman filter real-time correction method is introduced into Corresponding rising difference model. The developed new model is applied for the flood forecast in the tidal river, and the validity of this approach is confirmed. The model is used in the telemetry rainfall absence reservoirs, and its application in the reservoir was further improved. For Dahuofang reservoir where part remote censoring data is absent, flood forecast is studied. While forecasting, initial value P(0|0) and X(0|0) of Kalman filter and noise covariance matrix Q and R are confirmed. The forecast results prove the model to be effective.4. Dynamic upstream reservoir real-time operating mode based on Bayes theorem can not only raise floodwater development, but also eliminate flood damage.Based on the uncertainty of hydrology and use of forecasted message, the risk analysis in real-time upstream reservoir operation must be taken account into. This paper applies Bayes theorem, on the condition of mutually full fledged events, statistical computes the probability of different design rainstorm flood event, and the new idea and hypothesis". This proved the conclusion, studied by my research group in an national key research project. The proved conclusion is that it is impossible to happen designed rain while forecasted rain is no rain or little rain; And the designed rain possibly happen only while forecasted rain is moderate or heavy rain. This conclusion gave an further confirm for the assumption, which is that design rainstorm flood event E is random events of rainfall forecasting omissions, when 'no rain' is forecasted, the probability is extremely small, tends to zero. And the probability is high under the condition of the heavy rain forecasting" these conclusion made from a National key program is certificated. The above risk analysis results provide important data for reservoir real-time operating decision making. At last, the real-time reservoir elevation and discharge mode is developed. Taking ShenWo reservoir as an example, an inference operating mode is developed, which play an important role for flood resources development and flood control for PanJin and YingKou and LiaoHe Oilfield.5. Application - design and development of the flood and tide forecast and warning system.The value of theory lies in its application. Based on the analysis of the LiaoHe Oilfield flood forecast and early warning systems, the present progress of computer network, etc. "LiaoHe Oilfield Flood and Tide Forecasting and Warning System" is designed and developed. Combining the interactive, suitable for large data processing, facilitate centralized management and other advantages, traditional C/S (Client/Server) software architecture is used. Meanwhile, B/S (Browser/Server) software architecture is introduced, which is convenient, good scalability and maintainability etc. Using integrated design and development method, the system integrates ComGIS, ActiveX. This step can shorten software development period and efficiency increases the practicality value of the achievements. At last, taking "LiaoHe Oilfield Flood and Tide Forecasting and Warning System" as an example, we gave a detailed description of the application of the critical techniques.Finally, a summary is given and some remained problems are discussed.