The Research Of Ship’s Underwater Combat Deduction&Assessment Based On The Monte Carlo Method

With the development of the torpedo towards to long range, high speed, low noise andintelligence, surface ship is facing a severe threat from underwater. How to effectively use theexisting weapons defense torpedo attack, as well as the design and optimization of operationalconfiguration scheme is becoming the focus of the underwater defense of the naval. This articleanalyzed the variables that equipment performance, operational decisions, random factors ofcombats and so on, which influenced on the effectiveness of vessel underwater confrontation,and proposed an optimization method of configuration scheme of the system of vessel defenseunderwater torpedo. The process was under the guidance of the concept that the optimizationdesign of warship combats system based on effectiveness of warship combat, and then finisheddeduction evaluation and research of ship underwater torpedo against based on the Monte Carlomethod. The main research contents and results are as the following aspects.(1) The feasibility analysis of application of applying the Monte Carlo method to theeffectiveness of deduction of underwater combat. It analyzed the feasibility of applying theMonte Carlo method to effectiveness deduction based on the basic idea of the Monte Carlomethod, verified the feasibility of evaluating the effectiveness of deduction used by the MonteCarlo method. The application and guiding framework of the effectiveness of deduction ofunderwater combat based on the Monte Carlo method was proposed. And the Monte Carlosystem analysis, modeling analysis and test analysis of the effectiveness of deduction ofunderwater combat were carried out. At last, the application procedure of applying the MonteCarlo method to evaluate the effectiveness of deduction of warship combat against theunderwater target was determined.(2) Established the high resolution model of torpedo operation behavior based on the MonteCarlo method. Established various types of torpedoes model of launching, motion trajectory,homing detection, the state estimation, and torpedo operation error respectively, according to theanalysis of the operation process of typical torpedoes. It provided the model support for adetailed description of torpedo operational behavior and change of state.(3) Established the model for the operation behavior of the ship defensing underwatertorpedo based on the Monte Carlo method. According to the means of surface ships againsttorpedoes, it established the models of behaviors of ship maneuver combat, ship acoustic warfare, ship hard killing, and the error of ship combat, respectively.(4) Deducted and estimated examples of vessle underwater combat, and analyzed thededuction results. Designed and initial implementation of the system that evaluating theeffectiveness of a warship underwater combat deduction, according to the process of evaluatingthe performance of Mento Carlo deduction, based on the model of the deduction of both red andblue underwater combat. Deducted the examples through program configuration scenarios ofboth red and blue Combat System, analyzed the influence of various factors on the effectivenessof naval underwater warfare combat, then validated the method and model. At last, the paper putforward the method of prioritizing the configuration program of warship underwater combat.